3412 Nottingham Rd · Ocean Springs, MS 39564

$264,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1973 0.25 ac lot $164/sqft · 13% below area Est $302k · 13% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Golf Cart Living in Fort Bayou Estates - Solid Brick Home with Brand New Roof & Subroof, Large Yard & Endless Potential! Welcome to 3412 Nottingham Drive in the heart of Fort Bayou Estates - one of Ocean Springs' most loved neighborhoods and part of the highly sought-after Golf Cart District! This solid brick 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a large, beautiful lot in an X flood zone, meaning flood insurance is not typically required by lenders. Enjoy sidewalks, a neighborhood park, boat launch access, and the ability to golf cart to downtown Ocean Springs and all of its restaurants, festivals, art, and coastal charm. Inside, you'll find a spacious open living and dining area just

Key facts

• Large yard
• Boat launch access
• Bar seating

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST DINING SPACE
• BAR SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community offers boating and fishing; Near entertainment; Playground; Sidewalks and street lights; See remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front with direct access; Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Fenced lot; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: See remarks
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring; Ceramic tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MS, #420 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Ocean Springs School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 130 in MS (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #18 of 375 statewide, top 5%, 498 students, 99% FRL); Ocean Springs Upper Elementary Scho (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #12 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,332 students, 100% FRL); Ocean Springs High School (math 77% / reading 64%, grade B+, #1 of 197 statewide, top 0%, 1,899 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 33% district-wide (67 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,681 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.65%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,312
• List price: $264,000
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1334 Diller Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+7%)	7mo	$219,000	$127	74
3231 Nottingham Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+1%)	5mo	$245,000	$150	74
5513 Sioux Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+6%)	1mo	$270,000	$159	72
127 Clear Springs Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+4%)	5mo	$292,000	$174	68
5316 Culeoka Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,582 (-2%)	6mo	$215,000	$136	68
1210 Lancelot Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-4%)	4mo	$309,000	$200	61
1204 Londonderry Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+8%)	4mo	$234,900	$135	61
145 Clear Springs Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+4%)	3mo	$288,000	$171	61
1209 Hammersmith Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$181	61
5401 Culeoka Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-8%)	3mo	$209,900	$142	58
10100 Iroquois Ave	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,739 (+8%)	7mo	$269,900	$155	45
92 Hunter Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+10%)	8mo	$249,900	$141	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-64,251
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-92,236
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,960/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $222,548

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-104	-5% $-195	+0% $-286	+5% $-378	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-440	-5% $-363	+0% $-286	+5% $-210	+10% $-133
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-219	base $-286	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1221 King Henry Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	45d	1	0.12mi
3500 Groveland Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1173	$1,750	$1.49	15d	1	0.38mi
7003 Ute Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,195	$1.10	22d	1	0.77mi
3825 Timberlake Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	22d	1	0.80mi
2718 Government St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,800	$1.19	45d	1	0.89mi
3910 Yosemite Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1070	$1,595	$1.49	45d	1	1.05mi
156 Lafayette Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	22d	1	1.05mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,296	$1.22	22d	1	1.08mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,405	$1.32	15d	1	1.08mi
1200 Deana Rd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,337	$1.26	45d	1	1.08mi
2501 Bienville Blvd Unit 432 Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1095	$2,300	$2.10	45d	1	1.21mi
132 Gettysburg Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1689	$2,195	$1.30	22d	1	1.24mi
4008 Breezy Hill Ln Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	3.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	15d	1	1.27mi
2501 Bienville Blvd Ocean Springs, MS	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	45d	1	1.28mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	1.28mi
230 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,850	$1.34	15d	1	1.28mi
237 Saratoga Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1295	$2,150	$1.66	15d	1	1.30mi
212 Maple Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,475	$1.35	15d	1	1.30mi
106 Booth Cir Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	15d	1	1.32mi
422 Whispering Pine Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,795	$1.67	15d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $264,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $266,500 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $266,500 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $266,500 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $266,500 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $266,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $266,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $266,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $266,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $269,000 Active 2669-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$3,960
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$8,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2803360
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,485
• Composite: 53.35/100
• National rank: #1477
• State rank: #1 of 130 in MS

Livability — Ocean Springs

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #420

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Springs, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 43,240
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $264,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $266,500 MLSU
• 2026-05-13 Listed $269,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $379 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.