303 Pine Mist Ln · Conroe, TX 77304

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2014 5,501 sqft lot $167/sqft · 12% below area Est $244k · 12% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home in beautiful Pinewood Forest. Quiet community with easy access to I-45, Loop 336, or 105. Covered front porch & dedicated foyer. No carpet! Wood-look tile and vinyl plank flooring. Neutral interior paint throughout in February 2026. The spacious living room is brightened by double windows. Open plan with island kitchen and dining area. Kitchen features stainless steel appliances: gas stove, microwave in 2024; & new dishwasher 2026. A pantry adds valuable storage space. Dining room overlooks the backyard ,with direct access to the covered patio. Primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Bedrooms on a split plan with two secondary bedrooms and full bath off a separate hallway. Room sizes approximate. Exterior HVAC mechanicals in 2025. Ongoing Pest Defense service. Lovely, fenced back yard with extended patio. Many happy memories to be made here! Conroe Schools.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Dedicated foyer
• Easy access to i-45

Tags

• QUIET COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO I-45
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED FOYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 746 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,264 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.56%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,760
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -11.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2032 Lost Pine Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+5%)	17mo	$240,000	$178	75
208 Summer Pine Ct	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+11%)	4mo	$245,000	$171	74
216 Lakeshore Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	8mo	$270,000	$212	69
2016 Lost Pine Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+6%)	22mo	$209,900	$154	66
204 Summer Pine Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+11%)	22mo	$229,000	$160	59
—	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+7%)	14mo	$457,500	$331	50
3312 Hamilton Cir	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,340 (+4%)	24mo	$119,000	$89	45
178 Greenleaf Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+10%)	19mo	$240,000	$169	34
226 Wellwood Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+15%)	23mo	$235,000	$159	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-48,130
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-72,203
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 746
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $196,430

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 Summer Pine Ct Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1729	$1,975	$1.14	2d	1	0.10mi
308 Crooked Pine Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,779	$1.07	3d	1	0.20mi
121 Magnolia Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	22d	1	0.28mi
3406 North Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,425	$1.34	44d	1	0.63mi
3400 N Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,710	$1.77	3d	18	0.68mi
3300 N Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,739	$1.80	2d	33	0.80mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 3008 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,309	$1.18	10d	1	0.94mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,277	$1.15	3d	1	0.94mi
2951 North Loop 336 W Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,320	$1.19	11d	1	0.96mi
2490 S Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,576	$1.47	1d	9	1.28mi
3727 W Davis St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	968	$1,405	$1.45	44d	1	1.28mi
217 Oakcrest Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1663	$1,675	$1.01	44d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   status $215,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Pending 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Pending 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Pending 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Pending 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Pending 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Pending 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $229,000 Active 921-char remark

    Show marketing remark (921 chars)

    Move-in ready home in beautiful Pinewood Forest. Quiet community with easy access to I-45, Loop 336, or 105. Covered front porch & dedicated foyer. No carpet! Wood-look tile and vinyl plank flooring. Neutral interior paint throughout in February 2026. The spacious living room is brightened by double windows. Open plan with island kitchen and dining area. Kitchen features stainless steel appliances: gas stove, microwave in 2024; & new dishwasher 2026. A pantry adds valuable storage space. Dining room overlooks the backyard ,with direct access to the covered patio. Primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet. Bedrooms on a split plan with two secondary bedrooms and full bath off a separate hallway. Room sizes approximate. Exterior HVAC mechanicals in 2025. Ongoing Pest Defense service. Lovely, fenced back yard with extended patio. Many happy memories to be made here! Conroe Schools.

16. 2026-02-10
    listed $1,900
17. 2026-02-09
    historical $1,900
18. 2026-02-09
    historical $1,900
19. 2026-02-09
    historical
20. 2025-12-09
    listed $1,900
21. 2025-12-07
    price $1,900
22. 2025-12-06
    listed $1,500
23. 2025-11-03
    price $249,000
24. 2025-11-03
    price $249,000
25. 2025-10-17
    listed $259,000 Active
26. 2025-10-17
    listed $259,000 Active
27. 2025-10-14
    historical
28. 2025-10-09
    price $259,000
29. 2025-08-27
    listed $269,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,260
• After-tax cash flow: $-280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed for Rent $1,900 REALLYO
• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $1,900 BCSRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed for Rent $1,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $249,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $259,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $269,000 HARMLS