13514 Willow Fir Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

$225,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $225,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $377,312.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-889 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $226k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 3346 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,871 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
10. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
11. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.10%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,312
• List price: $225,990
• Delta: -40.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6107 Daintree Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$114	92
13030 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,984 (+1%)	3mo	$255,990	$129	78
6019 Ash Willow Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-11%)	4mo	$282,990	$161	76
13014 Pine Trace St	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,098 (+7%)	0mo	$253,991	$121	74
6205 Alder Creek Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	4mo	$270,990	$133	72
13111 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	4/3.0	1,875 (-5%)	2mo	$332,990	$178	72
13123 Pine Trace St	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,868 (-5%)	1mo	$263,990	$141	70
13038 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-4%)	4mo	$335,990	$179	69
13047 Pine Trace St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-3%)	4mo	$347,990	$182	66
13022 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-13%)	3mo	$228,990	$133	57
13107 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-12%)	5mo	$308,190	$179	56
13103 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	4/3.5	2,233 (+14%)	4mo	$288,990	$129	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-123,540
• Equity at exit: $56,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -75.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-202,963
• Equity at exit: $32,623

Cash invested: $105,647 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.3 mo (23%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $222,990 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 65 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +56.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 3346
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,979
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$472 /mo · $5,660/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,427

Max offer price $248,661

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-628	-5% $-759	+0% $-889	+5% $-1,019	+10% $-1,150
Rent	-10% $-1,071	-5% $-980	+0% $-889	+5% $-798	+10% $-707
Rate	-1.0pp $-699	-0.5pp $-793	base $-889	+0.5pp $-987	+1.0pp $-1,086

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,328
• Closing costs: $11,319
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6034 Ash Willow Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1968	$1,675	$0.85	79d	1	0.10mi
13111 Pine Trace St Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	1875	$2,400	$1.28	32d	1	0.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions HOAPlayground, park, and trails within the communityAssociation fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Built by Lennar HomesSlab foundationTwo-story design (primary suite on first floor)
• Construction: Brick constructionYear built: 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotPond on lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 15)Additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 10 x 11; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate showerTub with showerKitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $225,990 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $225,990 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $225,990 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $225,990 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $225,990 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $225,990 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,990 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,990 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,990 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $230,990 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $230,990 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $236,990 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $236,990 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $236,990 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $236,990 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $236,990 Active 143 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $236,990 Active 142 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $236,990 Active 141 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $236,990 Active 140 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $236,990 Active 139 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    price $236,990 Active 138 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $251,990 Active 138 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $251,990 Active 137 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $251,990 Active 136 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $251,990 Active 135 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $251,990 Active 134 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $251,990 Active 133 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $251,990 Active 132 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $251,990 Active 131 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $251,990 Active 130 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $251,990 Active 129 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $251,990 Active 128 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $251,990 Active 127 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $251,990 Active 126 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $251,990 Active 125 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $251,990 Active 124 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $251,990 Active 123 DOM
38. 2026-10-03
    days on market $251,990 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $251,990 Active 121 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $251,990 Active 120 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $251,990 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $251,990 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $251,990 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $251,990 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $251,990 Active 115 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $251,990 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $251,990 Active 113 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $251,990 Active 112 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $251,990 Active 111 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $251,990 Active 110 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,622
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,135
• − Property taxes: −$5,660
• − Insurance: −$1,887
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,976
• Taxable loss: −$17,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,237
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia West H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions HOAPlayground, park, and trails within the communityAssociation fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Built by Lennar HomesSlab foundationTwo-story design (primary suite on first floor)
• Construction: Brick constructionYear built: 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotPond on lotComposition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 15)Additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 10 x 11; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboPantrySeparate showerTub with showerKitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $286,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $291,990 HARMLS