13514 Willow Fir Dr · Magnolia, TX 77316

$286,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Littleton Floor Plan - On the first floor of this spacious two-story home is a convenient and modern layout seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining room and family room together. In a private corner is the tranquil owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Upstairs is a sprawling central game room made for gatherings of all sizes, along with three secondary bedrooms to provide sleeping accommodations to family members and guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Central game room
• Attached bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAYOUT
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL GAME ROOM
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions HOA; Playground, park, and trails within the community; Association fee $1,200 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built by Lennar Homes; Slab foundation; Two-story design (primary suite on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Year built: 2026
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Pond on lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 13 x 15); Additional bedrooms on second floor (approx. 10 x 11; 10 x 10; 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $286,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,168.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,394 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6043 Ash Willow Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,968 (0%)	0mo	$248,745	$126	94
6051 Ash Willow Ct	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	0mo	$297,990	$151	92
6034 Ash Willow Ct	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	2mo	$293,990	$149	92
6225 Alder Creek Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+4%)	1mo	$272,990	$134	89
13079 Pine Trace St	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+6%)	1mo	$343,990	$165	85
13043 Pine Trace St	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-9%)	1mo	$320,990	$179	76
6039 Ash Willow Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-13%)	1mo	$276,990	$161	73
6122 Daintree Ct	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,968 (0%)	1mo	$293,990	$149	72
13107 Pine Trace St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-12%)	0mo	$308,190	$179	60
6253 Alder Creek Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+14%)	1mo	$278,990	$124	54
13087 Pine Trace St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-11%)	1mo	$332,990	$190	49
6242 Alder Creek Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+14%)	1mo	$274,990	$122	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-75,654
• Equity at exit: $44,309

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-116,274
• Equity at exit: $25,694

Cash invested: $83,207 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,458/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,726

Max offer price $247,761

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-239	+0% $-341	+5% $-444	+10% $-547
Rent	-10% $-523	-5% $-432	+0% $-341	+5% $-251	+10% $-160
Rate	-1.0pp $-192	-0.5pp $-266	base $-341	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,292
• Closing costs: $8,915
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $286,990 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 652-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 613-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $264,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,646
• − Property taxes: −$4,458
• − Insurance: −$1,486
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,202
• − Management: −$2,202
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,645
• Taxable loss: −$9,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $291,990 HARMLS