36200 Paradise Ranch Rd Spc 77 · Hasley Canyon, CA 91384

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 3,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful area of Castaic, CA Park amenities include Pool, Clubhouse and Play area for the kids off the 5 North Freeway Templin HWY Just 8 Mins away from the Famous Castiac Lake.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• New flooring
• Gorgeous views

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED HOME
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• EXTERIOR PORCH CARPETING
• GORGEOUS VIEWS
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: APN 8950-245-077; Park manager: Sonya
• HOA & community: Park amenities include barbecue area, clubhouse/rec room, pool, and recreation area; New space rent listed at $1,900 (verify with manager)

Exterior

• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service; Check with manager for utilities details
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured 1973); Located in a park (Paradise Ranch), Space 77; All-ages park
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Skirted; Manufactured by GRNBR; trade name GRNBR; Model: NONE; Serial number: 2173321X/U; Length 60', Width 24'
• Exterior features: Siding exterior; Awning; Porch; E.Q. braces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas Range; Gas Oven; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Refrigerator wall/window unit (window-style refrigeration)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas Range; Gas Oven; Disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,168 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $199k implies a 398% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.14%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,360
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36200 Paradise Ranch Rd #77	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$40,000	$28	97
36200 Paradise Ranch Rd #44	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$100,000	$69	87
36200 Paradise Ranch Rd #83	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$100,000	$69	83
36200 Paradise Ranch Rd #88	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	6mo	$135,000	$88	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $52,541
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $154,824
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91384

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $480/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $1,332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 476-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $480 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,033/yr (+$86/mo · 215.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$480
• − Insurance: −$1,809
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $13,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,244
• After-tax cash flow: $12,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly renovated home in Paradise Ranch Community is move-in ready with fresh exterior paint, new flooring, and updated bathrooms. It offers a great location with mountain views and park amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both interior paint touch-ups — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both exterior paint touch-ups — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both interior paint touch-ups — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both exterior paint touch-ups — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and exterior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William S. Hart Union High
• NCES district ID: 0642510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $95,844
• Composite: 58.6/100
• National rank: #2030
• State rank: #155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hasley Canyon

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1168
• US rank: #25897

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 27,278

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 37% Two or more races 22% Asian 9% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.54%
• Current HPI: 319.9021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $199,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-11 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $180,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-02 Coming Soon $180,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $480 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.