Cascade 2446 Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78642

$350,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 472 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover Cascade in Liberty Hill, where small-town charm meets surprising luxury. With new homes currently starting in the mid-$200s, Cascade features amenities rarely found at this price point, including a resort-style pool, pickleball courts, a community park, and more. Choose from more than 14 thoughtfully designed floor plans with up to 5 bedrooms, giving you the flexibility to find the perfect home for your lifestyle. Reserve early, and you'll even have the opportunity to customize the home plan of your choosing to truly make it your own. Like every Brohn community, Cascade delivers More Home for Your Money with high-end finishes, thoughtful details, and smarter construction-all included.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 471 days

🏗️ New construction. The $350,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $399,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $351k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-660 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Liberty Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2064 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 472 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,226 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 472 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.08%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,900
• List price: $350,990
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Adze Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-7%)	4mo	$334,960	$148	82
125 Adze Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-7%)	3mo	$334,980	$148	81
132 Adze Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,259 (-8%)	7mo	$328,870	$146	79
124 Adze Dr	0.06mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,637 (+8%)	8mo	$351,250	$133	72
137 Adze Dr	0.07mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,595 (+6%)	8mo	$382,150	$147	71
213 Green Brush Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,527 (+3%)	1mo	$469,900	$186	56
105 North River Way	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,776 (+14%)	3mo	$594,900	$214	45
220 Sheepdog Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,669 (+9%)	7mo	$579,900	$217	44
320 Gary Wayne Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,079 (-15%)	1mo	$399,900	$192	42
208 Sheepdog Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,695 (+10%)	12mo	$649,900	$241	35
124 Top View Dr	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,808 (+15%)	5mo	$469,990	$167	34
225 Sheepdog Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	2,776 (+14%)	11mo	$549,900	$198	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,626
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-183,966
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 107 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.3 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $500,900 ($204/sqft)
• Median days on market: 209 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -20.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78642

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2064
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $5,998/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,498

Max offer price $304,334

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-384	-5% $-522	+0% $-660	+5% $-799	+10% $-937
Rent	-10% $-871	-5% $-766	+0% $-660	+5% $-555	+10% $-450
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-559	base $-660	+0.5pp $-764	+1.0pp $-869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
362 Golden Paint Trl Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1997	$2,100	$1.05	0d	1	0.23mi
217 Gary Wayne Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,600	$1.06	118d	1	0.82mi
205 River Rd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2900	$3,200	$1.10	87d	1	0.91mi
404 Lariat Loop Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.0	3233	$2,800	$0.87	10d	1	1.11mi
125 Clemens Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	87d	1	1.11mi
217 McCrae Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2453	$2,900	$1.18	138d	1	1.13mi
537 Bauer Loop Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2243	$2,350	$1.05	7d	1	1.25mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	3.0	1745	$2,350	$1.35	145d	1	1.26mi
144 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,350	$1.35	157d	1	1.26mi
404 Langhorne Bnd Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2392	$3,000	$1.25	3d	1	1.32mi
105 Danielson St Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.5	2618	$2,800	$1.07	53d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $350,990 Active 472 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $350,990 Active 471 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $350,990 Active 470 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $350,990 Active 469 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $350,990 Active 468 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $350,990 Active 466 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $350,990 Active 465 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $350,990 Active 464 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $350,990 Active 463 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $350,990 Active 462 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $350,990 Active 461 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $350,990 Active 460 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $350,990 Active 459 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $350,990 Active 458 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $350,990 Active 457 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $350,990 Active 456 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $350,990 Active 455 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $350,990 Active 454 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $350,990 Active 453 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $350,990 Active 452 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $350,990 Active 451 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $350,990 Active 450 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $350,990 Active 449 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $350,990 Active 448 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $350,990 Active 447 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $350,990 Active 446 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $350,990 Active 445 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    price $350,990 Active 444 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $340,990 Active 444 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $340,990 Active 443 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $340,990 Active 442 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $340,990 Active 441 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $340,990 Active 440 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $340,990 Active 439 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $340,990 Active 438 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $340,990 Active 437 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $340,990 Active 436 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $340,990 Active 435 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $340,990 Active 434 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $340,990 Active 433 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $340,990 Active 432 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $340,990 Active 431 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $340,990 Active 430 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $340,990 Active 428 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $340,990 Active 427 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $340,990 Active 426 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $340,990 Active 425 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $340,990 Active 424 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $340,990 Active 423 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $340,990 Active 422 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,998
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$15,196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,647
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a great opportunity for an investor to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics with minor updates, which would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Hill El C- TX #742/4,322 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Louine Noble El D TX #926/4,322 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Liberty Hill H S C- TX #422/1,632 Nat'l #4,773/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,434
• Household income: $132,958
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.62%
• Current HPI: 228.5772
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-24 Listed $371,990 Zillow