1 Bay Dr #4402 · Kapalua, HI 96761

$299,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,774 sqft · Condo public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2008 ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Breathtaking views of the ocean and Lanai await you every day, during your time in this perfectly located 4th floor 2 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early August each year (weeks 31 & 32) plus one float week (in Jan/Feb or thanksgiving week each year). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4402's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2022: July 30 - August 13 & Nov 19 - 26 2023: August 5 - 19 & Jan. 7 - 14

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• In-residence dining
• Signature restaurant

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• DEEDED FRACTIONAL OWNERSHIP
• TWICE DAILY HOUSEKEEPING
• ASSIGNED CONCIERGE
• IN-RESIDENCE DINING
• SIGNATURE RESTAURANT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 21-acre site; Living area reported as 1,776
• Financial info: Fee simple ownership

Exterior

• Utilities: Central A/C
• Home design: Residential income property; Built in 2008, effectively updated 2026; Located at 1 Bay Dr #4402, Lahaina, facing ocean
• Construction: Year built: 2008 (effective 2026)
• Exterior features: Covered lanai/deck; Heated in-ground pool; Spa/Hot tub; Oceanfront property

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ocean view; Located in The Resort at Kapalua Bay (Residences on Kapalua Bay)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-40k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $299k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#102 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: King Kamehameha Iii Elementary School (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D-, #68 of 183 statewide, top 37%, 607 students, 40% FRL); Lahaina Intermediate School (math 19% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 42 statewide, top 63%, 647 students, 51% FRL); Lahainaluna High School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #30 of 43 statewide, top 76%, 1,037 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 637 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,625/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 114% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $255k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 106% of rent.

Recommended offer $299,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: -6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -47.23%
• DSCR: -1.10
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.99×
• Total profit: $-250,672
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -4.46×
• Total profit: $-456,950
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 637
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA est. from 13 same-building comps: −$4,882
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$971
• Net cashflow: $-3,295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,795

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,088	-5% $-3,192	+0% $-3,295	+5% $-3,398	+10% $-3,501
Rent	-10% $-3,660	-5% $-3,477	+0% $-3,295	+5% $-3,112	+10% $-2,929
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,144	-0.5pp $-3,219	base $-3,295	+0.5pp $-3,372	+1.0pp $-3,451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Hui Rd F Lahaina, HI	3.0	2.0	2558	$6,500	$2.54	4d	1	0.83mi
10 Wailele Kai Ln Lahaina, HI	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1390	$3,740	$2.69	4d	8	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pooldoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $299,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,500 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,500 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,500 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,500 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $139,500 Active
17. 2025-07-18
    historical
18. 2024-07-17
    listed $149,500 Active
19. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $254,700
20. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $150,000 Sold 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (947 chars)

    Breathtaking views of the ocean and Lanai await you every day, during your time in this perfectly located 4th floor 2 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early August each year (weeks 31 & 32) plus one float week (in Jan/Feb or thanksgiving week each year). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4402's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2022: July 30 - August 13 & Nov 19 - 26 2023: August 5 - 19 & Jan. 7 - 14

21. 2021-08-11
    listed $189,000 Active 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (947 chars)

    Breathtaking views of the ocean and Lanai await you every day, during your time in this perfectly located 4th floor 2 Bedroom, 2 1/2 Bath residence. This deeded, one-twelfth fractional ownership interest gives you 21 deeded days a year plus access to additional days on a per diem basis. Your fixed time is two consecutive weeks in early August each year (weeks 31 & 32) plus one float week (in Jan/Feb or thanksgiving week each year). Every day on property you will be pampered by the Montage staff, the twice daily housekeeping, your assigned concierge, not to mention the in-residence dining, signature restaurant, kids programs, lagoon pools and much much more. Montage is Hawaii’s 4th and newest Forbes 5 Star Property!!! The 3D tour is an actual video of this units views, as it was taken from 4402's lanai. Upcoming deeded time periods: 2022: July 30 - August 13 & Nov 19 - 26 2023: August 5 - 19 & Jan. 7 - 14

22. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $139,000 Sold
23. 2021-03-19
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold
24. 2021-03-10
    listed $139,000 Active
25. 2021-03-01
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
26. 2020-03-03
    price $149,000
27. 2020-02-04
    listed $169,000 Active
28. 2019-02-15
    historical
29. 2018-02-16
    listed $310,000 Active
30. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $191,619

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,440
• − Management: −$4,440
• − HOA: −$58,584
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$43,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-29,123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kapalua

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #20456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kapalua, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-27.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $139,500 RAM MLS
• 2025-07-18 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2024-07-17 Listed $149,500 RAM MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $254,700 Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $150,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-08-11 Listed $189,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) $139,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-03-10 Listed $139,000 RAM MLS
• 2021-03-01 Contingent — RAM MLS
• 2020-03-03 Price Changed $149,000 RAM MLS
• 2020-02-04 Listed $169,000 RAM MLS
• 2019-02-15 Listing Removed — RAM MLS
• 2018-02-16 Listed $310,000 RAM MLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $191,619 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $57,408 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.