17106 Moss Oaks Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$399,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,453 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2006 0.44 ac lot $116/sqft · 24% below area Est $527k · 24% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3,453 sqft residence is situated on almost half an acre in the quiet Tall Timbers subdivision. The interior features four spacious bedrooms with a versatile floor plan that offers enough room to easily add two or more additional bedrooms. 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage provide ample space for any lifestyle. Outside, the property is highlighted by a private backyard featuring a custom outdoor fireplace for year-round enjoyment. A unique physical attribute of this property is the empty lot portion suitable for building a second full home. This provides a rare opportunity for multi-generational living, a large shop, or guest quarters on the same site. Residents enjoy immediate access to 242 and 45. Major amenities, including Costco, H-E-B, and fine dining, are just minutes away. The property is also located near major medical centers and Lone Star College. A major advantage is the remarkably low tax rate and no MUD taxes. The home is zoned for highly rated schools within Conroe ISD.

Key facts

• Guest quarters
• Private backyard
• No mud taxes

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CUSTOM OUTDOOR FIREPLACE
• LARGE SHOP
• GUEST QUARTERS
• LOW TAX RATE
• NO MUD TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-658 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge El (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 624 students, 66% FRL); Irons J H (math 54% / reading 53%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 1,344 students, 52% FRL); Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 34% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,218 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,077
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8169 Tranquil Lake Way	0.43mi	4/3.5	3,539 (+2%)	0mo	$575,000	$162	70
8442 Horsepen Bend Drive Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	3,491 (+1%)	10mo	$585,000	$168	64
8307 Floating Heart Ct	0.28mi	4/3.5	3,209 (-7%)	8mo	$595,000	$185	62
17128 Spindle Oaks Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5	3,071 (-11%)	7mo	$370,000	$120	60
8113 Tranquil Lake Way	0.60mi	4/3.5	3,642 (+6%)	12mo	$644,999	$177	48
17246 Rookery Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,230 (-6%)	17mo	$415,000	$128	46
8422 Horsepen Bend Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,991 (-13%)	8mo	$525,000	$176	46
17541 Harpers Way	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,577 (+4%)	10mo	$534,999	$150	40
16861 Greenhouse St	0.72mi	4/2.5	3,087 (-11%)	11mo	$329,900	$107	38
17583 Harpers Way	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,793 (+10%)	7mo	$588,000	$155	37
8135 Spreadwing St	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,741 (+8%)	17mo	$515,000	$138	37
10520 Scarce Chaser St	0.69mi	4/4.0	3,804 (+10%)	13mo	$822,500	$216	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-104,200
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-134,194
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$536 /mo · $6,432/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,565

Max offer price $283,781

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-545	+0% $-658	+5% $-771	+10% $-884
Rent	-10% $-874	-5% $-766	+0% $-658	+5% $-550	+10% $-442
Rate	-1.0pp $-456	-0.5pp $-556	base $-658	+0.5pp $-761	+1.0pp $-867

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8153 Tranquil Lake Way Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	4187	$3,500	$0.84	45d	1	0.48mi
9295 Inland Leather Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,400	$0.96	4d	1	0.57mi
17153 Upland Bent Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$2,149	$0.78	22d	1	0.65mi
17706 Sea Rosemary Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2425	$2,895	$1.19	45d	1	0.84mi
9931 Chimney Swift Ln Conroe, TX	5.0	3.0	3068	$2,250	$0.73	15d	1	1.23mi
9952 Swallow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	3136	$2,180	$0.70	19d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,990 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $399,990 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This 3,453 sqft residence is situated on almost half an acre in the quiet Tall Timbers subdivision. The interior features four spacious bedrooms with a versatile floor plan that offers enough room to easily add two or more additional bedrooms. 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage provide ample space for any lifestyle. Outside, the property is highlighted by a private backyard featuring a custom outdoor fireplace for year-round enjoyment. A unique physical attribute of this property is the empty lot portion suitable for building a second full home. This provides a rare opportunity for multi-generational living, a large shop, or guest quarters on the same site. Residents enjoy immediate access to 242 and 45. Major amenities, including Costco, H-E-B, and fine dining, are just minutes away. The property is also located near major medical centers and Lone Star College. A major advantage is the remarkably low tax rate and no MUD taxes. The home is zoned for highly rated schools within Conroe ISD.

16. 2026-04-14
    listed $424,990 Active 999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (999 chars)

    This 3,453 sqft residence is situated on almost half an acre in the quiet Tall Timbers subdivision. The interior features four spacious bedrooms with a versatile floor plan that offers enough room to easily add two or more additional bedrooms. 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage provide ample space for any lifestyle. Outside, the property is highlighted by a private backyard featuring a custom outdoor fireplace for year-round enjoyment. A unique physical attribute of this property is the empty lot portion suitable for building a second full home. This provides a rare opportunity for multi-generational living, a large shop, or guest quarters on the same site. Residents enjoy immediate access to 242 and 45. Major amenities, including Costco, H-E-B, and fine dining, are just minutes away. The property is also located near major medical centers and Lone Star College. A major advantage is the remarkably low tax rate and no MUD taxes. The home is zoned for highly rated schools within Conroe ISD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,432 · $536/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,320 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: +$888/yr (+$74/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,432
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,623
• − Management: −$2,623
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$15,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $424,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,432 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.