229 Forest Lane Dr Unit B · Mabank, TX 75156

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.46 ac lot $129/sqft · 27% below area Est $192k · 27% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2022 and move-in ready, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a clean, low-maintenance setup on a surveyed 0.461-acre lot with no HOA and no city-limit restrictions. Inside, the open living and kitchen layout is bright, efficient, and easy to maintain, with modern cabinetry, recessed lighting, durable flooring, and pantry storage. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, and the refrigerator, washer, and dryer will convey with the sale. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and soaking tub, while both bedrooms are comfortably sized. Outside, the long gravel drive, fenced yard areas, and mature trees create usable outdoor space with privacy and shade.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• NO HOA
• NO CITY RESTRICTIONS
• UNDERGROUND ELECTRICITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 675 students, 64% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 863 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.39%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,343
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -20.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Mohican Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+0%)	14mo	$179,000	$164	65
6185 Apache Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	7mo	$349,900	$331	59
106 Ute Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+15%)	5mo	$209,000	$167	58
116 Navajo Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-1%)	9mo	$174,900	$162	53
134 Armada Loop	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,190 (+9%)	15mo	$399,900	$336	50
140 Mohican Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	12mo	$180,000	$150	49
149 Mohican Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	16mo	$190,000	$158	45
113 Pierce Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-4%)	18mo	$159,000	$151	45
306 Dyer Cir	0.62mi	2/1.0	948 (-13%)	2mo	$105,000	$111	43
137 Sierra Madre St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+5%)	17mo	$109,500	$96	41
106 Comanche Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	8mo	$190,000	$158	37
102 Navajo Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	14mo	$186,300	$155	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,763
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,684
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $208,900 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 863
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $338	-5% $290	+0% $241	+5% $193	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $181	+0% $241	+5% $302	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $277	base $241	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	93d	1	0.71mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	93d	1	0.92mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA assumable
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAdditional parkingGravel parking areaOversized parking
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedMunicipal utility districtProperty listed as outside city limits
• Home design: Single family residence (residential)Attached propertyOne storyBuilt in 2022Located in Forgotten Acres Subdivision
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardStorm cellarChain link fencingCleared lot with many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main levelSecond bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanCable TV availableOne living areaOne dining area3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (listed with appliances)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $149,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-07-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $149,900 Active 29 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $149,900 Active 23 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
39. 2026-06-19
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    pricedays on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $152,900 Active 16 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $152,900 Active 14 DOM
45. 2026-06-12
    days on market $152,900 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $152,900 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,900 Active 9 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,900 Active 8 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $152,900 Active 5 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $710
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,725/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home offers a clean, low-maintenance setup with modern finishes and ample outdoor space. Potential for minor landscaping and storage improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Add a small shed — Provide additional storage and utility space ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Central El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Mabank J H C TX #333/1,662 Nat'l #3,367/14,009 High Mabank H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 80,471 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA assumable
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: DrivewayAdditional parkingGravel parking areaOversized parking
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity connectedMunicipal utility districtProperty listed as outside city limits
• Home design: Single family residence (residential)Attached propertyOne storyBuilt in 2022Located in Forgotten Acres Subdivision
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardStorm cellarChain link fencingCleared lot with many trees

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRefrigeratorElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main levelSecond bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanCable TV availableOne living areaOne dining area3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater (listed with appliances)

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $152,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $152,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $152,900 HCBOR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $159,900 HCBOR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,900 HCBOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $169,900 HCBOR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $169,900 NTREIS