229 Forest Lane Dr Unit B · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.46 ac lot $138/sqft · 22% below area Est $192k · 22% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2022 and move-in ready, this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a clean, low-maintenance setup on a surveyed 0.461-acre lot with no HOA and no city-limit restrictions. Inside, the open living and kitchen layout is bright, efficient, and easy to maintain, with modern cabinetry, recessed lighting, durable flooring, and pantry storage. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, and the refrigerator, washer, and dryer will convey with the sale. The primary suite includes dual sinks, a separate shower, and soaking tub, while both bedrooms are comfortably sized. Outside, the long gravel drive, fenced yard areas, and mature trees create usable outdoor space with privacy and shade.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• NO HOA
• NO CITY RESTRICTIONS
• UNDERGROUND ELECTRICITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,651 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,343
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -20.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
147 Mohican Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,090 (+0%)	12mo	$179,000	$164	66
6185 Apache Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-3%)	6mo	$349,900	$331	60
106 Ute Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+15%)	3mo	$209,000	$167	59
116 Navajo Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-1%)	7mo	$174,900	$162	54
134 Armada Loop	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,190 (+9%)	14mo	$399,900	$336	52
140 Mohican Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	11mo	$180,000	$150	51
113 Pierce Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-4%)	16mo	$159,000	$151	46
149 Mohican Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	15mo	$190,000	$158	46
306 Dyer Cir	0.62mi	2/1.0	948 (-13%)	1mo	$105,000	$111	45
137 Sierra Madre St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+5%)	16mo	$109,500	$96	42
106 Comanche Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	7mo	$190,000	$158	38
102 Navajo Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+10%)	13mo	$186,300	$155	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-17,785
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-18,595
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 Sierra Madre St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,800	$1.42	44d	1	0.71mi
114 Timber Crst Mabank, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $152,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $152,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on marketlisting id $152,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    historical
16. 2026-05-02
    price $152,900
17. 2026-05-01
    price $152,900
18. 2026-04-17
    price $159,900
19. 2026-04-16
    price $159,900
20. 2026-04-02
    price $164,900
21. 2026-04-02
    price $164,900
22. 2026-02-24
    listed $169,900 Active
23. 2026-02-19
    listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$82
• After-tax cash flow: $2,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home offers a clean, low-maintenance setup with modern finishes and ample outdoor space. Potential for minor landscaping and storage improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Add a small shed — Provide additional storage and utility space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Add a small shed — Provide additional storage and utility space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $152,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $152,900 HCBOR
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $159,900 HCBOR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,900 HCBOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $169,900 HCBOR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $169,900 NTREIS