8818 Crescent Bar Rd NW #176 · Crescent Bar, WA 98848

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 272 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1984

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lot 176 in Crescent Bar Resort. 1984 Park Model Trailer needs some TLC. The deck in need of some rebuild and the shed has signs of water damage. Lot has good parking, not far from the pool, Laundry and shower house.

Key facts

• Crescent bar resort
• Good parking
• Not far from pool

Tags

• CRESCENT BAR RESORT
• GOOD PARKING
• NOT FAR FROM POOL
• LAUNDRY AND SHOWER HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Manufactured Home; Style: Manufactured single wide; Calculated building area 493 (source: Realist)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Located in Crescent Bar N. RV Park (about 254 homes); Land lease amount $555

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water (HOA); HOA power provider; HOA sewer provider; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home (Villa Royal PM model); One story; Faces southeast; Fixer condition; Mobile home remains
• Construction: Wood construction; Metal roof; Wood skirting; Tie down foundation; Manufactured after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Awnings; Patio/porch/deck; Shed for storage; Common area access (park)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range; Kitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Forced air cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater located in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($872/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.5% in Crescent Bar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Quincy School District (town): math 35% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #246 of 291 in WA (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Quincy High School (895 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-15,566
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,350
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98848

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $116	+0% $73	+5% $29	+10% $-14
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $23	+0% $73	+5% $123	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $104	base $73	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 215-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$273
• After-tax cash flow: $1,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quincy School District
• NCES district ID: 5307080
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,051
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10524
• State rank: #246 of 291 in WA

Livability — Crescent Bar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crescent Bar, WA
• Population (ZIP): 13,014

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% White 25% Two or more races 17% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Scottish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.03%
• Current HPI: 223.6428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $154 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.