316 Liberty Rd · Federalsburg, MD 21632

$95,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1930 5,500 sqft lot Est $173k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the charming TOWN OF FEDERALSBURG, this exquisite bungalow, built in 1930, seamlessly blends timeless elegance with modern comforts. This delightful residence invites you to experience a lifestyle of warmth and sophistication, perfect for those seeking a serene retreat. As you approach the property, the classic vinyl siding and inviting front entry beckon you inside. Step into a cozy yet spacious living area that radiates charm, featuring abundant natural light that dances across the room. The thoughtful layout enhances the sense of space, making it ideal for both relaxation and entertaining. The heart of the home is a well-appointed kitchen, ready for culinary adventures. With a

Key facts

• Tranquil bedroom
• Full bathroom
• Classic vinyl siding

Tags

• CLASSIC VINYL SIDING
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• ADJOINING DINING AREA
• TRANQUIL BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (front-entry) — 1 garage space; Driveway; On-street parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Gravity septic field sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Vinyl siding exterior; Year built estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above-grade structures present

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (including one full on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Window unit cooling (electric); Propane-fired heating (owned); Hot water supplied by bottled gas
• Interior features: Level entry to main floor; No basement; Living area reported as estimated

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 4.8% in Federalsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Federalsburg Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #614 of 860 statewide, top 75%, 390 students, 80% FRL); Colonel Richardson Middle School (math 3% / reading 28%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 374 students, 72% FRL); Colonel Richardson High School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #55 of 222 statewide, top 26%, 549 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $95k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.04%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Central Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+1%)	8mo	$175,000	$250	61
3336 Tanyard Branch Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0 (+1)	640 (-8%)	15mo	$60,000	$94	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $21,642
• Equity at exit: $17,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $65,214
• Equity at exit: $14,030

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21632

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $747

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $95,000 Active
17. 1987-06-01
    soldstatus $34,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,234
• After-tax cash flow: $5,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Federalsburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #13461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,227

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 25% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.22%
• Current HPI: 301.4384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+175.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $626 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.