447 2nd Ave SW · Winnebago, MN 56098

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1977 0.49 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordably priced home in a quiet Winnebago location featuring spacious living areas, good natural light, and a functional layout. Situated on an almost half-acre lot with plenty of outdoor space. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors!

Key facts

• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (26 x 24)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story (single level)
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (half bath on main floor; full bath in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen window; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#162 in MN, #3,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Earth Area Public School (town): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #245 of 301 in MN (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Faribault County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Faribault County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $101k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $145,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.65%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,504
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 4th Street St NW	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-2%)	10mo	$130,000	$111	66
151 SW 1st Ave Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,145 (-4%)	11mo	$70,000	$61	63
54 SE 6th Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,256 (+5%)	13mo	$93,000	$74	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $92,126
• Equity at exit: $128,066

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $256,387
• Equity at exit: $269,077

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56098

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,774/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $310	+0% $268	+5% $225	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $204	+0% $268	+5% $331	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $306	base $268	+0.5pp $229	+1.0pp $189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
233 4th St NW Winnebago, MN	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-05-06
   price $149,900
8. 2026-04-22
   price $159,900
9. 2026-04-07
   listed $169,900 Active
10. 2026-01-14
    historical $1,425
11. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $101,100
12. 2025-12-16
    listed $1,425
13. 2012-06-04
    soldstatus $41,000
14. 2004-01-30
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,774 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,774
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$203
• After-tax cash flow: $3,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Earth Area Public School
• NCES district ID: 2700130
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,434
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6095
• State rank: #245 of 301 in MN

Livability — Winnebago

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #3494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnebago, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,946

Population outlook (Faribault County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,474 people
• By 2030: 13,112 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 12,454 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,973 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 11,565 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 10,844 · -19.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Faribault

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.4% · R 67.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -5.6pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+9.1 2008: R+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.36%
• Current HPI: 281.463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+212.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Rental Removed $1,425 Avail
• 2025-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $101,100 Public Records
• 2025-12-16 Listed for Rent $1,425 Avail
• 2012-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,774 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.