612 Morrell Ave · Connellsville, PA 15425

$125,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1930 4,791 sqft lot Est $162k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Timeless Classic Brick 2 Story, almost 1800 Sq ft! Featuring NEW Stainmaster 20 yr carpet with petguard, and NEW Ceramic flooring in the Kitchen, entry, and main level half bath! This 4 bedroom home has gorgeous Pocket Doors and built in seating with storage in the 11x10 entry, NEW entry porch roof, home roof in 2004 gas forced air furnace in 2012. There's a front/side wrap covered porch! There is a little playroom/sitting room upstairs which would make a great Nursery, the interior has been NEWLY PAINTED with Sherwin Williams Cashmere line in the Kitchen and baths, Super Paint for the other rooms, and Promar for the Trim throughout. BONUS! A walk up 27x25 Attic, almost finished with HW floors, add 600+ Sq Ft when you finish! This home also Features a Security System, Kitchen appliances stay, the dryer stays, a 1 car detached garage, off street gravel parking for 3/4 cars, and a FENCED backyard for play and pets! A shed stores your gardening and lawncare items. Home Warranty Available!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Brick home
• Solid cabinets

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• KITCHEN WITH TILE FLOORING
• SOLID CABINETS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HIDDEN HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FULLY FUNCTIONAL PLUMBING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story brick house
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: 0.11-acre lot; Lot dimensions approximately 4,792 sq ft

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Resale condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 6.0% in Connellsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#602 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime D-.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,011 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.56%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 S 9th St	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (+4%)	6mo	$172,000	$95	72
112 Beech St	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,658 (-5%)	20mo	$124,000	$75	66
202 E Patterson Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,800 (+3%)	2mo	$166,500	$93	58
407 E Green St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,789 (+3%)	0mo	$149,900	$84	55
205 S 10th St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,639 (-6%)	15mo	$137,000	$84	54
1121 Race St	0.63mi	4/1.5	1,596 (-8%)	14mo	$240,500	$151	43
1202 Vine St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-9%)	6mo	$215,000	$136	39
1120 Race St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,617 (-7%)	18mo	$220,000	$136	36
402 E Washington Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,650 (-5%)	22mo	$195,000	$118	34
505 S Arch St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,560 (-11%)	22mo	$129,900	$83	34
309 E Green St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,992 (+14%)	6mo	$110,000	$55	33
206 E Patterson Ave	0.62mi	4/1.5	1,920 (+10%)	23mo	$175,000	$91	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,401
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $16,749
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15425

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,345/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $125,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $287	+0% $251	+5% $216	+10% $180
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $198	+0% $251	+5% $305	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $283	base $251	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $125,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 654-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $135,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,345
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable income: $1,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$250
• After-tax cash flow: $2,766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Connellsville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #5763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connellsville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 17,752

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.63%
• Current HPI: 193.6086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+147.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $135,900 West Penn MLS
• 2020-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-03 Sold (MLS) $87,000 West Penn MLS
• 2019-06-01 Listed $89,900 West Penn MLS
• 2008-09-03 Sold (MLS) $60,555 West Penn MLS
• 2008-04-25 Listed $64,900 West Penn MLS
• 2003-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $46,900 Public Records
• 2003-11-14 Sold (MLS) $47,900 West Penn MLS
• 2003-09-26 Listed $55,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,345 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.