1510 Highway JJ Lot 16 · Moberly, MO 65270

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 172 Days on market

Built 2005 Fair condition $39/sqft · 22% below area Est $64k · 22% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice & affordable 2005 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 16x80 Singlewide with a Covered carport and Porch! All Kitchen Appliances including Dishwasher Convey. Primary Bedroom has Walk-in Closet and Private Bath with Double Sink Vanity, Garden Tub & Walk-in Shower. All Electric with Central Heat & Air. Newer Carpet, Roof and HVAC. There is a 10x16 Storage Shed-has Electric with Workbench & Outlets. Currently in Riley Trailer Park but Could Also Be Moved.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DOUBLE SINK VANITY
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.27%
• DSCR: 3.90
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,477
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -22.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $40,420
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $97,735
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65270

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Very nice & affordable 2005 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 16x80 Singlewide with a Covered carport and Porch! All Kitchen Appliances including Dishwasher Convey. Primary Bedroom has Walk-in Closet and Private Bath with Double Sink Vanity, Garden Tub & Walk-in Shower. All Electric with Central Heat & Air. Newer Carpet, Roof and HVAC. There is a 10x16 Storage Shed-has Electric with Workbench & Outlets. Currently in Riley Trailer Park but Could Also Be Moved.

2. 2026-03-03
   price $50,000 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Very nice & affordable 2005 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 16x80 Singlewide with a Covered carport and Porch! All Kitchen Appliances including Dishwasher Convey. Primary Bedroom has Walk-in Closet and Private Bath with Double Sink Vanity, Garden Tub & Walk-in Shower. All Electric with Central Heat & Air. Newer Carpet, Roof and HVAC. There is a 10x16 Storage Shed-has Electric with Workbench & Outlets. Currently in Riley Trailer Park but Could Also Be Moved.

3. 2025-12-12
   price $59,000 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Very nice & affordable 2005 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 16x80 Singlewide with a Covered carport and Porch! All Kitchen Appliances including Dishwasher Convey. Primary Bedroom has Walk-in Closet and Private Bath with Double Sink Vanity, Garden Tub & Walk-in Shower. All Electric with Central Heat & Air. Newer Carpet, Roof and HVAC. There is a 10x16 Storage Shed-has Electric with Workbench & Outlets. Currently in Riley Trailer Park but Could Also Be Moved.

4. 2025-11-21
   listed $64,000 Active 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Very nice & affordable 2005 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, 16x80 Singlewide with a Covered carport and Porch! All Kitchen Appliances including Dishwasher Convey. Primary Bedroom has Walk-in Closet and Private Bath with Double Sink Vanity, Garden Tub & Walk-in Shower. All Electric with Central Heat & Air. Newer Carpet, Roof and HVAC. There is a 10x16 Storage Shed-has Electric with Workbench & Outlets. Currently in Riley Trailer Park but Could Also Be Moved.

5. 2023-07-20
   listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $8,870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,129
• After-tax cash flow: $7,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include exterior siding, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom tile.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Worn appearance
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Dated design
• Minor Bathroom tile — Standard, dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases appeal
• Both Update bathroom tile — Modernizes the space and increases appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Worn appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen cabinets · Dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom tile · Standard, dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑
• Both Update bathroom tile — Modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moberly
• NCES district ID: 2921100
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,160
• Composite: 27.35/100
• National rank: #6984
• State rank: #246 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moberly

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3045

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,762

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,596 people
• By 2030: 24,213 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 23,184 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 22,081 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 18,994 · -22.8%
• By 2100: 15,070 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 23.3% · R 75.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+36.6 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.15%
• Current HPI: 199.9743
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — RCBR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $50,000 RCBR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $59,000 RCBR
• 2025-11-21 Listed $64,000 RCBR
• 2023-07-20 Listed $59,000 CBORMLS