107 Mill St · Elbridge, NY 13060

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1889 0.46 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home in the Village of Elbridge eagerly awaits new owners. Situated in the heart of the first floor, you'll find a cozy kitchen, den, family room, and bathroom. In addition to this, upstairs features two bedrooms for your comfort. Boasting an enclosed front porch and a storage room at the back, this house offers plenty of opportunities for customization and improvement. If you're seeking a home improvement project or simply a property to personalize, this one is a must see. All items, both inside and outside the house, will remain upon closing. Please note, all current appliances are sold "As Is".

Key facts

• Storage room
• Enclosed front porch
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $563 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#794 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jordan-Elbridge Central School District (rural): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #277 of 590 in NY (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.11%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,562
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Sylvan St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+5%)	11mo	$290,000	$189	64
5387 Hamilton Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,422 (-2%)	4mo	$215,000	$151	63
5408 Hamilton Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,464 (+0%)	9mo	$232,000	$158	62
217 Valley Dr	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,632 (+12%)	8mo	$120,200	$74	56
226 E Main St St #226	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-1%)	4mo	$340,000	$236	56
111 Willowcrest Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,344 (-8%)	21mo	$275,000	$205	49
5443 Hamilton Rd	0.67mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,364 (-6%)	23mo	$279,500	$205	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $57,816
• Equity at exit: $44,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.77×
• Total profit: $141,349
• Equity at exit: $83,323

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13060

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $563

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $585	+0% $563	+5% $540	+10% $518
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $512	+0% $563	+5% $614	+10% $664
Rate	-1.0pp $596	-0.5pp $579	base $563	+0.5pp $546	+1.0pp $529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-09-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-06
   price $65,000
3. 2025-08-01
   price $75,000
4. 2025-06-13
   price $85,000
5. 2025-05-05
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,230
• − Management: −$1,230
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,460
• After-tax cash flow: $5,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jordan-Elbridge Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615990
• Math proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,408
• Composite: 49.11/100
• National rank: #2049
• State rank: #277 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elbridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #15284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elbridge, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,845

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Current HPI: 296.1607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-34.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $65,000 CNYIS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $75,000 CNYIS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $99,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,505 · +67.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.