901 Alyse St · Deer Park, TX 77536

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1962 7,021 sqft lot Est $222k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is the one you've been waiting for. Freshly painted and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom home offers an open kitchen and family room, a backyard retreat with a covered deck, garden beds, storage shed, and no rear neighbors. The epoxy-finished garage with mini-split creates the perfect flex space for hobbies, workouts, projects, or game nights. Major updates include a 2023 roof, 2019 HVAC, radiant barrier insulation (2025), and plumbing upgrades. Plus, pickleball courts are just a short walk away. Exceptional value and ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• 7,021 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 801 students, 52% FRL); Deer Park J H (math 60% / reading 55%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 863 students, 40% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $220k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,402 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 Norwood St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+7%)	4mo	$275,000	$190	73
918 Martha St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,471 (+9%)	2mo	$236,000	$160	72
402 Alice Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-2%)	2mo	$244,500	$184	67
902 Ivy Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,409 (+4%)	3mo	$234,900	$167	62
1501 Deer Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-4%)	5mo	$185,000	$142	62
418 E 1st St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,382 (+2%)	5mo	$110,000	$80	62
437 E 2nd St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-4%)	2mo	$199,999	$154	61
118 E 10th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-3%)	2mo	$230,000	$176	61
321 Reta Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+3%)	4mo	$229,900	$164	58
1110 Ivy Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+7%)	1mo	$191,200	$131	55
825 Grove St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-10%)	1mo	$199,000	$164	52
221 E 2nd St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,214 (-10%)	4mo	$175,000	$144	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-47,212
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-59,612
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,661/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,173

Max offer price $191,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-99	+0% $-161	+5% $-224	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-239	+0% $-161	+5% $-84	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-105	base $-161	+0.5pp $-218	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
813 Luella Ave Deer Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,781	$1.41	45d	1	0.09mi
418 E 1st St Deer Park, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Pending 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Pending 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Pending 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $219,900 Pending 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   status $219,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 553-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $219,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,661 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,661 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,661
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$5,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,352
• After-tax cash flow: $-584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+185.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Coming Soon $219,900 HARMLS
• 1999-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,661 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.