23412 Tiny Moons Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,599 sqft lot $170/sqft · 6% above area Est $240k · 6% over $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this modern single-story residence located in the growing community of Elgin, Texas. Built in 2024, this thoughtfully designed home offers approximately 1,400–1,500 square feet of well-utilized living space featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, blending comfort, functionality, and contemporary style. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with modern appliances, ample cabinetry, and generous counter space, making it the heart of the home. The private primary suite is situated toward the rear of the home, offering a quiet retreat com

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Walk in closet
• Open concept layout

Tags

• MODERN SINGLE STORY RESIDENCE
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ENERGY EFFICIENT CONSTRUCTION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $45 monthly fee; Association fee covers common area maintenance; Community amenities include mailbox area and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces (total)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southwest; Resale property
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Exterior steps; Private yard; Fenced yard; Automatic sprinklers; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Main level primary suite; Open floor plan; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Screens on windows
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $198,014 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,490
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+1%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	89
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+1%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	88
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+1%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	88
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+5%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	85
23501 Firelight Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	81
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	80
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	80
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-6%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	78
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	76
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-2%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	74
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	64
23829 Glowing Embers Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+11%)	2mo	$249,990	$150	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $118,788
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $366,884
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$536 /mo · $6,431/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $198,014

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	0.02mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	22d	1	0.13mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	18d	1	0.13mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	44d	1	0.24mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.71mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.72mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.79mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.79mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.82mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.85mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.86mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.97mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.98mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	1.02mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	1.10mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	1.10mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $260,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $260,000 1499-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,431 · $536/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,431 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,431
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,068
• − Management: −$2,068
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$8,234
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern single-story home in Elgin, Texas, is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $255,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $260,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+164.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,431 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.