3305 Lapey St · Rockford, IL 61109

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1935 9,148 sqft lot Est $140k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this affordable ranch offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, newer mechanicals, newer roof, and a huge 2.5-car garage. Excellent opportunity for a first-time buyer, downsizer, or investor. Large yard area behind garage and convenient location. Estate sale being sold AS-IS. Back door to be repaired prior to closing.

Key facts

• Large yard area
• Newer roof
• Convenient location

Tags

• NEWER MECHANICALS
• NEWER ROOF
• LARGE YARD AREA
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house)
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; 0.21-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.21%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3245 9th St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$105,000	$84	79
3009 Cannon St	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,192 (-1%)	2mo	$135,000	$113	69
3000 Hanson St	0.45mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,217 (+1%)	1mo	$165,000	$136	69
1722 Pershing Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-2%)	8mo	$110,000	$94	67
1734 Sandy Hollow Rd	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,147 (-4%)	8mo	$77,500	$68	67
2845 10th St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,175 (-2%)	8mo	$129,490	$110	61
3220 18th St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+4%)	1mo	$155,000	$124	59
2213 Rexford Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,212 (+1%)	8mo	$142,000	$117	58
3437 Southworth Ct Ct	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+10%)	4mo	$157,500	$119	58
2820 Hanson St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,290 (+8%)	3mo	$120,000	$93	50
3322 Nashold Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (-11%)	4mo	$212,000	$199	41
3113 16th St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-12%)	9mo	$125,000	$118	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $15,131
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $51,475
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61109

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1418 22nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.23mi
1420 22nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.23mi
1211 21st Pl Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	1.29mi
1209 21st Pl Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,350	$1.30	44d	1	1.29mi
2217 8th St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	44d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 323-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $89,900 Pending 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $4,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 26,768
• Household income: $62,973
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.42%
• Current HPI: 296.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $89,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

-15.2%/yr

Latest (2012): $104 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.