7027 Dawson Pl · Jennings, MO 63136

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,134 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1948 6,041 sqft lot Est $76k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Key facts

• 6,041 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Basement parking; 1-car garage
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Central air; Forced air heating; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Primary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 267 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.87%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,978
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7126 Theodore Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,123 (-1%)	2mo	$34,900	$31	85
7133 Beulah Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,039 (-8%)	1mo	$70,000	$67	71
7138 Garesche Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (+8%)	6mo	$99,750	$82	70
7056 Idlewild Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,234 (+9%)	4mo	$59,900	$49	69
5637 Jennings Station Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-2%)	2mo	$30,000	$27	67
5468 Janet Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+5%)	5mo	$79,000	$66	65
5454 Hodiamont Ave	0.35mi	2/1.5	969 (-15%)	6mo	$40,000	$41	53
7220 Eunice Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,035 (-9%)	5mo	$55,900	$54	52
6114 Wyma Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-6%)	4mo	$132,000	$125	49
6331 Saloma Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,008 (-11%)	1mo	$80,000	$79	48
6706 Daiber St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-7%)	6mo	$95,000	$90	42
5614 Albia Ter	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-13%)	0mo	$125,000	$127	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $37,447
• Equity at exit: $42,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $102,783
• Equity at exit: $67,971

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7036 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$950	$1.10	17d	1	0.07mi
7121 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.12mi
7131 Garesche Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,090	$1.19	4d	1	0.15mi
7160 Beulah Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	784	$1,059	$1.35	43d	1	0.26mi
7030 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	801	$1,350	$1.69	43d	1	0.29mi
5225 Fletcher St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	918	$1,295	$1.41	23d	1	0.31mi
5439 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$950	$1.23	17d	1	0.32mi
5415 Hamilton Ave Unit Labs Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.35mi
5361 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,420	$1.58	17d	1	0.38mi
5516 Fairridge Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1110	$995	$0.90	23d	1	0.43mi
5515 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,400	$1.12	43d	1	0.52mi
5637 Jennings Station Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1116	$895	$0.80	43d	1	0.53mi
7218 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$980	$0.89	23d	1	0.54mi
5612 Hodiamont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,150	$0.96	10d	1	0.54mi
7120 Greenhaven Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,050	$0.93	23d	1	0.56mi
7304 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	43d	1	0.57mi
6150 Sherry Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$896	$0.87	23d	1	0.61mi
7315 Albright Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,150	$1.30	43d	1	0.61mi
6153 Laura Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	834	$1,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.61mi
5615 Beldon Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$950	$1.12	43d	1	0.62mi
7142 Lamont Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	17d	1	0.70mi
5662 Wilborn Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	768	$850	$1.11	23d	1	0.71mi
7431 Esterbrook Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,350	$1.70	43d	1	0.71mi
5654 Acme Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$325	$0.34	22d	1	0.72mi
5546 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	850	$1,273	$1.50	20d	1	0.73mi
5640 Sapphire Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	0.74mi
5721 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,120	$1.09	23d	1	0.79mi
5574 Era Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	12d	1	0.79mi
7205 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	0.81mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	23d	1	0.82mi
5936 Theodore Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	43d	1	0.83mi
7414 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,100	$1.43	43d	1	0.83mi
7420 Pleaseway Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	952	$1,250	$1.31	22d	1	0.85mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	43d	1	0.86mi
5613 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	4d	1	0.89mi
5636 Statler Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	777	$1,200	$1.54	23d	1	0.91mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	17d	1	0.95mi
8344 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	4d	1	0.95mi
8347 Eton Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	43d	1	0.96mi
5931 Emma Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$1,200	$1.36	43d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-16
   listed $85,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,810
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$674
• After-tax cash flow: $3,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+54.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $630,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $972 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.