14826 Ryder Ct · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2000 3,232 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious manufactured home with new roof in 55+ community of Grass Valley! Move right in and enjoy easy living in this well-maintained home located in one of Grass Valley's most desirable 55+ communities. Offering approximately 1,547 square feet, this spacious floor plan features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a versatile den that works perfectly as a home office, hobby room, or guest space. The bright and inviting interior includes a generously sized living area with direct access to the deck for morning coffee and dining al fresco. The oversized primary suite is located away from the main living spaces for maximum privacy and offers ample closet space and spacious bath with dual sinks and

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Ample closet space
• Spacious bath

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• VERSATILE DEN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO DECK
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• SPACIOUS BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided for property access
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property indicates no land lease)
• HOA & community: No HOA; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Propane; Public water; Sewer: other; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated/remodeled; Built in 2000
• Construction: Composition roof; Skirt: other; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Backyard; Front yard; Corner lot; Fenced yard; Shed(s); Storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing electric oven; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry cabinet; Kitchen island; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks, tub with shower over, and separate shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Formal entry; Dual-pane windows with screens; Porch steps and uncovered deck; Porch; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside (220 volt in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10086 Grinding Rock Dr #208	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-1%)	1mo	$75,000	$49	87
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-4%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	84
14867 Hidden Rock Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (+7%)	1mo	$186,000	$112	80
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,337 (-14%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	76
10024 Golden Shore Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (+1%)	0mo	$210,000	$134	75
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	74
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	68
10046 Dalewood Way	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	60
10088 Dalewood Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	60
10073 Dalewood Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	60
10098 Heritage Oak Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,713 (+11%)	1mo	$190,000	$111	59
14969 N Country Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-6%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $131
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $41,833
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$451/yr (+$38/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $3,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$726
• After-tax cash flow: $5,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.