Oakwood Plan · Dripping Springs, TX 78620

$329,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily · 180 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Oakwood, a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 1,444 sq. ft. of living space. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept layout, this plan offers comfort and convenience for modern living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 179 days

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $406,501.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-842 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.1% in Dripping Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#149 in TX, #4,158 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Dripping Springs ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #41 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Springs El (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 887 students, 13% FRL); Dripping Springs Middle (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 882 students, 0% FRL); Dripping Springs H S (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 2,433 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 765 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,994 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.88%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,501
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -18.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
150 Heritage Forest Pkwy	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+3%)	1mo	$369,990	$256	81
381 Darley Oak Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+6%)	1mo	$349,000	$235	81
570 Darley Oak Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	0mo	$389,990	$263	76
1155 N Roger Hanks Pkwy	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	10mo	$359,990	$242	75
194 Grayson Elm Pass	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	1mo	$389,990	$263	74
145 Great Sequoia Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	10mo	$389,990	$263	73
134 Granit Oak Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+6%)	12mo	$369,990	$249	69
404 Milkwood Ter	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+14%)	7mo	$415,126	$259	63
170 Grayson Elm Pass	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+14%)	2mo	$399,011	$249	59
600 Grand Prairie Cir	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,535 (+9%)	2mo	$470,000	$306	58
120 Grayson Elm Pass	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+14%)	12mo	$393,990	$247	52
274 Wrangell Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+13%)	13mo	$434,465	$273	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-122,443
• Equity at exit: $60,611

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-187,438
• Equity at exit: $35,147

Cash invested: $113,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78620

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 765
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,490 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$508 /mo · $6,098/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,556

Max offer price $284,636

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-561	-5% $-702	+0% $-842	+5% $-983	+10% $-1,123
Rent	-10% $-1,039	-5% $-941	+0% $-842	+5% $-744	+10% $-645
Rate	-1.0pp $-637	-0.5pp $-739	base $-842	+0.5pp $-948	+1.0pp $-1,055

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,625
• Closing costs: $12,195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
468 Milkwood Ter Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1483	$2,450	$1.65	45d	1	0.18mi
210 Dome Peak Ter Dripping Springs, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,700	$1.64	45d	1	0.65mi
253 Spanish Star Trl Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	25d	1	0.66mi
400 Creek Rd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1080	$1,773	$1.64	0d	6	1.03mi
240 Rose Dr Unit A Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,749	$1.46	3d	1	1.26mi
240 Rose Dr Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,849	$1.54	3d	1	1.26mi
1282 S Rob Shelton Blvd Dripping Springs, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	983	$2,756	$2.80	0d	47	1.30mi
500 Harmon Hills Cv Unit B Dripping Springs, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,500	$1.71	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,990 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $329,990 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 163 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 162 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 161 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 160 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 159 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $329,990 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Discover the Oakwood, a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 1,444 sq. ft. of living space. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept layout, this plan offers comfort and convenience for modern living.

17. 2026-01-15
    status Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Discover the Oakwood, a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 1,444 sq. ft. of living space. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept layout, this plan offers comfort and convenience for modern living.

18. 2026-01-14
    historical 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Discover the Oakwood, a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 1,444 sq. ft. of living space. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept layout, this plan offers comfort and convenience for modern living.

19. 2025-12-23
    listed $359,990 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Discover the Oakwood, a thoughtfully designed single-story home with 1,444 sq. ft. of living space. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and an open-concept layout, this plan offers comfort and convenience for modern living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,770
• − Property taxes: −$6,098
• − Insurance: −$2,033
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,390
• − Management: −$2,390
• − Depreciation: −$11,825
• Taxable loss: −$17,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dripping Springs ISD
• NCES district ID: 4800008
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $103,367
• Composite: 54.5/100
• National rank: #1347
• State rank: #41 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dripping Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #4158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dripping Springs, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 22,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,860
• Household income: $153,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.1% rent · 85.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.51%
• Current HPI: 308.2387
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-23 Listed $359,990 Zillow