617 Hilltop Ave · Warrior, AL 35180

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $203k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All brick, new deck, new hot water heater, new floors, knotty pine paneling, big living room with two gas fireplaces with beautiful mantel, one in large living room & amp; one in den, storage building. Fenced in front and back yard

Key facts

• New floors
• New hot water heater
• Knotty pine paneling

Tags

• NEW DECK
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORS
• KNOTTY PINE PANELING
• BIG LIVING ROOM
• TWO GAS FIREPLACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.9% in Warrior — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#360 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $135k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.54%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Beck Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-10%)	8mo	$75,000	$60	62
804 Main St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+1%)	24mo	$205,000	$145	55
170 Bellehurst Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,511 (+8%)	10mo	$274,403	$182	43
616 Ridgecrest Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,579 (+13%)	7mo	$170,000	$108	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,296
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $35,307
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35180

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Owens St Warrior, AL	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,350	$1.25	43d	1	0.94mi
632 Wenonah WAY Kimberly, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	10d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $135,000 Active
15. 2013-01-16
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$657
• After-tax cash flow: $4,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Warrior

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #21085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrior, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,097

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.81%
• Current HPI: 250.1325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+187.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $135,000 FSBO.com
• 2013-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.