13 Oneida Trl · Eldred, NY 12737

$274,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 0.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this four-bedroom, two-bath house with eat-in-kitchen, large family room, and a finished attic. Along with a detached two-car garage, the house set on just over a half-acre lot on a quiet country road. Bonus: The master bedroom had an enclosed porch. Being sold as-is. This house has great potential and is just waiting for someone to appreciate it. Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Finished attic
• Lake community

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FINISHED ATTIC
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LAKE COMMUNITY
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• LOCAL WALKING AREAS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Septic tank; See remarks for additional utilities
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Other construction material; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Other construction materials; Other foundation details; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Steam heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: See remarks for utilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.3% in Eldred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Eldred Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #495 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: George Ross Mackenzie Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 242 students, 38% FRL); Eldred Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 230 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 267% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $275k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $220,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $135,627
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $410,674
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12737

• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,850/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $235,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-145	+0% $-222	+5% $-300	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-309	+0% $-222	+5% $-135	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-152	base $-222	+0.5pp $-294	+1.0pp $-366

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Beach Rd Unit 2ND Glen Spey, NY	5.0	1.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	15d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $274,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,850 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,850
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $-881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eldred Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610410
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,775
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #495 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eldred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,817

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 132.02%
• Current HPI: 443.8248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+685.4% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $274,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $74,500 Public Records
• 2020-03-06 Sold (MLS) $74,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-10 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-25 Listed $74,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-06 Price Changed $89,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-16 Price Changed $94,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Price Changed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-28 Price Changed $104,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Listed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-01 Price Changed $105,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-12 Price Changed $109,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-29 Price Changed $110,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-15 Listed $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-16 Listed $162,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-28 Listed $162,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,850 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.