172 Cherry Ave · New Hebron, MS 39140

$174,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 362 Days on market

Built 1977 1.50 ac lot $60/sqft · 17% below area Est $309k · 43% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this incredible opportunity in the charming town of New Hebron. This beautiful 5 BR, 2 BA home is situated on a 1.5 acre lot, offering space,comfort, and versatility both inside and out. Step inside to discover a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinetry and a conveniently located dining area--perfect for hosting family and friends. The open-concept layout flows into a large living room featuring a cozy fireplace, while an additional downstairs room offers flexible space ideal for a formal sitting room, office, or extra dining area. This first floor includes two generously sized bedrooms and an over-sized full bath. Upstairs, you will find a second living area/den, three more bedrooms and another full bath. With its spacious layout and peaceful setting, this home offers the best of small town living with room to grow. Property is being sold as is. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• Spacious kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• 1.5 ACRE LOT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($761/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#241 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lawrence County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #85 of 130 in MS (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,699 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,060
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -43.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 Wells St	0.13mi	5/3.5	3,105 (+6%)	15mo	$294,900	$95	61
101 Main Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,550 (-13%)	15mo	$115,000	$45	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $36,074
• Equity at exit: $90,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $109,677
• Equity at exit: $149,262

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39140

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,900 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $174,900 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $174,900 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $174,900 Active 359 DOM
5. 2025-10-05
   price $174,900 910-char remark

   Show marketing remark (910 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity in the charming town of New Hebron. This beautiful 5 BR, 2 BA home is situated on a 1.5 acre lot, offering space,comfort, and versatility both inside and out. Step inside to discover a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinetry and a conveniently located dining area--perfect for hosting family and friends. The open-concept layout flows into a large living room featuring a cozy fireplace, while an additional downstairs room offers flexible space ideal for a formal sitting room, office, or extra dining area. This first floor includes two generously sized bedrooms and an over-sized full bath. Upstairs, you will find a second living area/den, three more bedrooms and another full bath. With its spacious layout and peaceful setting, this home offers the best of small town living with room to grow. Property is being sold as is. Schedule your private showing today!

6. 2025-08-07
   price $199,999 910-char remark

   Show marketing remark (910 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity in the charming town of New Hebron. This beautiful 5 BR, 2 BA home is situated on a 1.5 acre lot, offering space,comfort, and versatility both inside and out. Step inside to discover a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinetry and a conveniently located dining area--perfect for hosting family and friends. The open-concept layout flows into a large living room featuring a cozy fireplace, while an additional downstairs room offers flexible space ideal for a formal sitting room, office, or extra dining area. This first floor includes two generously sized bedrooms and an over-sized full bath. Upstairs, you will find a second living area/den, three more bedrooms and another full bath. With its spacious layout and peaceful setting, this home offers the best of small town living with room to grow. Property is being sold as is. Schedule your private showing today!

7. 2025-06-06
   listed $229,500 Active 910-char remark

   Show marketing remark (910 chars)

   Don't miss this incredible opportunity in the charming town of New Hebron. This beautiful 5 BR, 2 BA home is situated on a 1.5 acre lot, offering space,comfort, and versatility both inside and out. Step inside to discover a spacious kitchen with abundant cabinetry and a conveniently located dining area--perfect for hosting family and friends. The open-concept layout flows into a large living room featuring a cozy fireplace, while an additional downstairs room offers flexible space ideal for a formal sitting room, office, or extra dining area. This first floor includes two generously sized bedrooms and an over-sized full bath. Upstairs, you will find a second living area/den, three more bedrooms and another full bath. With its spacious layout and peaceful setting, this home offers the best of small town living with room to grow. Property is being sold as is. Schedule your private showing today!

8. 2025-04-01
   historical
9. 2024-09-04
   price $225,000
10. 2023-09-23
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$970/yr (+$81/mo · 235.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$550
• After-tax cash flow: $1,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802490
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,725
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8812
• State rank: #85 of 130 in MS

Livability — New Hebron

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #20044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Hebron, MS
• Population (ZIP): 2,497

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,069 people
• By 2030: 11,724 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 10,955 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 10,085 · -16.4%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 5,614 · -53.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 45%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.6) · D 31.4% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -36.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.6 2020: R+30.6 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+26.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 124.8266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $174,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $199,999 MLSU
• 2025-06-06 Listed $229,500 MLSU
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $225,000 MLSU
• 2023-09-23 Listed $249,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.