The Oriole Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$274,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 970 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 969 days

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,374.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 970 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $238,676 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 970 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,374
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -15.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15206 N Heron Heights Way	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,997 (-3%)	3mo	$335,000	$168	76
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (-1%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	75
15404 Bicknells Thrush Ct	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (-5%)	2mo	$340,000	$174	73
40702 Barley Straw	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (-7%)	2mo	$311,490	$163	64
15307 Mountain Plover Pl	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+0%)	2mo	$314,900	$153	60
15443 Park Perch Pl	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,064 (+0%)	3mo	$327,900	$159	60
15459 Park Perch Pl	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,061 (-0%)	3mo	$309,990	$150	58
40759 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	1mo	$293,490	$163	56
40718 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	1mo	$294,890	$164	56
40735 Barley Straw Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-13%)	1mo	$279,990	$156	56
15019 Baikal Teal Ter	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,931 (-6%)	2mo	$317,900	$165	55
14522 Montclair Way	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,261 (+10%)	3mo	$285,000	$126	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $147,852
• Equity at exit: $293,122

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.85×
• Total profit: $442,279
• Equity at exit: $632,130

Cash invested: $91,105 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.6 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,490 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1924
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,387 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,706
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,881/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,846

Max offer price $272,841

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-251	+0% $-363	+5% $-475	+10% $-588
Rent	-10% $-552	-5% $-457	+0% $-363	+5% $-269	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-280	base $-363	+0.5pp $-447	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,343
• Closing costs: $9,761
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,781	$2.52	0d	40	0.05mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	93d	1	0.16mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	73d	1	0.18mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	93d	1	0.32mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	48d	1	0.66mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	93d	1	0.83mi
40427 Basalt Elm Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$1,975	$1.25	21d	1	0.89mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	69d	1	1.02mi
40718 Barley Straw Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.06mi
475 Audubons Shearwater Way Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2049	$2,700	$1.32	12d	1	1.32mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	73d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 970 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $274,990 Active 968 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $274,990 Active 967 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $274,990 Active 966 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $274,990 Active 965 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $274,990 Active 962 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $274,990 Active 960 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $274,990 Active 959 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $274,990 Active 955 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $274,990 Active 954 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $274,990 Active 953 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 952 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $274,990 Active 951 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 948 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $274,990 Active 947 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $274,990 Active 946 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $274,990 Active 945 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 944 DOM
19. 2026-07-11
    days on market $274,990 Active 942 DOM
20. 2026-07-10
    days on market $274,990 Active 941 DOM
21. 2026-07-09
    days on market $274,990 Active 940 DOM
22. 2026-07-07
    days on market $274,990 Active 938 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $274,990 Active 937 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $274,990 Active 936 DOM
25. 2026-07-05
    days on market $274,990 Active 935 DOM
26. 2026-07-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 934 DOM
27. 2026-07-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 933 DOM
28. 2026-07-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 932 DOM
29. 2026-06-30
    days on market $274,990 Active 931 DOM
30. 2026-06-29
    days on market $274,990 Active 930 DOM
31. 2026-06-28
    days on market $274,990 Active 929 DOM
32. 2026-06-27
    days on market $274,990 Active 928 DOM
33. 2026-06-26
    days on market $274,990 Active 927 DOM
34. 2026-06-24
    days on market $274,990 Active 925 DOM
35. 2026-06-22
    days on market $274,990 Active 923 DOM
36. 2026-06-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 922 DOM
37. 2026-06-18
    days on market $274,990 Active 919 DOM
38. 2026-06-17
    days on market $274,990 Active 918 DOM
39. 2026-06-16
    days on market $274,990 Active 917 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $274,990 Active 916 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $274,990 Active 914 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $274,990 Active 910 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,990 Active 909 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,990 Active 908 DOM
45. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 905 DOM
46. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 904 DOM
47. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 903 DOM
48. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 902 DOM
49. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 901 DOM
50. 2024-03-04
    price $274,990 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    The beautiful Oriole plan makes great use of space with all bedrooms situated on the second floor leaving the first floor open for the whole family. The formal entryway leads into the spacious family room that also opens to the breezy kitchen/dining area. The generous second story game room is the perfect play space for adults and kids alike and can be converted into a fourth bedroom. A private third bathroom on the second floor extends the third bedroom and creates a second en-suite, if desired. Choose from two different sized covered patios for all of your outdoor gatherings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,226
• − Property taxes: −$4,881
• − Insurance: −$1,627
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,291
• − Management: −$2,291
• − Depreciation: −$9,465
• Taxable loss: −$10,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout and curb appeal, making it an excellent investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia Parkway El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Bear Branch J H D TX #479/1,662 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2023-12-13 Listed $269,990 Zillow