301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd · Burfordville, MO 63739

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1975 0.25 ac lot $115/sqft · 11% below area Est $113k · 11% under $47/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to your own slice of paradise at 301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd. Nestled within the gated serenity of the Hidden Valley Fishing Club, this charming 870 sq. ft. cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic vibes and modern comfort. Whether you are looking for a stress-free weekend retreat or a peaceful year-round residence, this property checks every box Step inside to a bright and open layout designed for relaxation. The heart of the home is the inviting living room, featuring a free-standing wood stove that creates a cozy ambiance for chilly evenings. The space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, which boasts a functional breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee. With one spacious bedroom, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room, you have all the conveniences of home in a manageable, low-maintenance footprint Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a turnkey retreat in Burfordville. Call today to schedule your private tour and start living the lake life!

Key facts

• Turnkey retreat
• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1975

Tags

• FREE-STANDING WOOD STOVE
• FUNCTIONAL BREAKFAST BAR
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• TURNKEY RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($315/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jackson R-II (suburban): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #73 of 324 in MO (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Cape Girardeau County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Cape Girardeau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $84,100 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $112,701
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -11.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Little Pine Lake Rd	0.39mi	1/1.5	1,000 (+15%)	8mo	$156,500	$157	48
351 Cypress Lake Rd	0.46mi	2/2.0 (+1)	950 (+9%)	22mo	$119,900	$126	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,498
• Equity at exit: $36,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $28,097
• Equity at exit: $49,787

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63739

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $808

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $55	+0% $26	+5% $-2	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $-7	+0% $26	+5% $59	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $52	base $26	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-02-26
   status Active 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Escape to your own slice of paradise at 301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd. Nestled within the gated serenity of the Hidden Valley Fishing Club, this charming 870 sq. ft. cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic vibes and modern comfort. Whether you are looking for a stress-free weekend retreat or a peaceful year-round residence, this property checks every box Step inside to a bright and open layout designed for relaxation. The heart of the home is the inviting living room, featuring a free-standing wood stove that creates a cozy ambiance for chilly evenings. The space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, which boasts a functional breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee. With one spacious bedroom, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room, you have all the conveniences of home in a manageable, low-maintenance footprint Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a turnkey retreat in Burfordville. Call today to schedule your private tour and start living the lake life!

7. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Escape to your own slice of paradise at 301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd. Nestled within the gated serenity of the Hidden Valley Fishing Club, this charming 870 sq. ft. cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic vibes and modern comfort. Whether you are looking for a stress-free weekend retreat or a peaceful year-round residence, this property checks every box Step inside to a bright and open layout designed for relaxation. The heart of the home is the inviting living room, featuring a free-standing wood stove that creates a cozy ambiance for chilly evenings. The space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, which boasts a functional breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee. With one spacious bedroom, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room, you have all the conveniences of home in a manageable, low-maintenance footprint Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a turnkey retreat in Burfordville. Call today to schedule your private tour and start living the lake life!

8. 2026-01-19
   price $99,900 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Escape to your own slice of paradise at 301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd. Nestled within the gated serenity of the Hidden Valley Fishing Club, this charming 870 sq. ft. cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic vibes and modern comfort. Whether you are looking for a stress-free weekend retreat or a peaceful year-round residence, this property checks every box Step inside to a bright and open layout designed for relaxation. The heart of the home is the inviting living room, featuring a free-standing wood stove that creates a cozy ambiance for chilly evenings. The space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, which boasts a functional breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee. With one spacious bedroom, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room, you have all the conveniences of home in a manageable, low-maintenance footprint Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a turnkey retreat in Burfordville. Call today to schedule your private tour and start living the lake life!

9. 2026-01-19
   listed $99,000 Active 997-char remark

   Show marketing remark (997 chars)

   Escape to your own slice of paradise at 301 Little Dogwood Lake Rd. Nestled within the gated serenity of the Hidden Valley Fishing Club, this charming 870 sq. ft. cabin offers the perfect blend of rustic vibes and modern comfort. Whether you are looking for a stress-free weekend retreat or a peaceful year-round residence, this property checks every box Step inside to a bright and open layout designed for relaxation. The heart of the home is the inviting living room, featuring a free-standing wood stove that creates a cozy ambiance for chilly evenings. The space flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area, which boasts a functional breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee. With one spacious bedroom, a full bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room, you have all the conveniences of home in a manageable, low-maintenance footprint Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a turnkey retreat in Burfordville. Call today to schedule your private tour and start living the lake life!

10. 2025-10-04
    price $99,000
11. 2025-09-26
    price $110,000
12. 2025-08-02
    price $115,000
13. 2025-06-28
    price $119,000
14. 2025-06-12
    price $120,000
15. 2025-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus
17. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus
18. 2023-11-09
    status Pending
19. 2023-11-09
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2023-10-09
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2023-10-05
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2013-06-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 215.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$807
• − Management: −$807
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$335
• After-tax cash flow: $650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson R-II
• NCES district ID: 2915600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,935
• Composite: 39.72/100
• National rank: #3898
• State rank: #73 of 324 in MO

Livability — Burfordville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 577

Population outlook (Cape Girardeau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,807 people
• By 2030: 88,016 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 93,914 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 99,541 · +17.4%
• By 2075: 114,527 · +35.0%
• By 2100: 121,718 · +43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape Girardeau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.5) · D 26.2% · R 72.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -46.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.5 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Current HPI: 145.9535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-05 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.