1946 Welcome Valley Rd · Benton, TN 37307

$274,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 260 Days on market

Built 1974 1.78 ac lot $128/sqft · 16% below area Est $333k · 17% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

Key facts

• Extra city lot
• Large balcony
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE BALCONY
• SPACIOUS ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• EXTRA CITY LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-625 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (53.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (53.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.2% in Benton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#118 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk County (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #44 of 139 in TN (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 211 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,556 (53.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 18.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,534
• List price: $274,999
• Delta: -17.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Franklin Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	2,068 (-4%)	2mo	$240,000	$116	81
1786 Welcome Valley Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,249 (+5%)	9mo	$470,000	$209	71
143 Hunters Way	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,126 (-1%)	17mo	$475,000	$223	67
1968 Welcome Valley Rd	0.04mi	3/3.0	2,000 (-7%)	23mo	$215,000	$108	64
210 Poplar Street St	0.35mi	3/1.5	2,246 (+5%)	14mo	$393,500	$175	63
119 Hunters Way	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,046 (-5%)	20mo	$430,000	$210	59
115 Hunters Way Way	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (-4%)	22mo	$450,900	$220	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $109,845
• Equity at exit: $247,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $354,470
• Equity at exit: $534,263

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37307

• Home prices YoY: 33.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 18.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $907/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,066

Max offer price $164,661

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $274,999 Active 260 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,999 Active 259 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,999 Active 258 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,999 Active 257 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,999 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,999 Active 254 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,999 Active 253 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,999 Active 251 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,999 Active 250 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,999 Active 249 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,999 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,999 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,999 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,999 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,999 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,999 Active 240 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $274,999 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

18. 2026-03-07
    price $279,999 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

19. 2026-01-10
    price $282,000 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

20. 2025-11-27
    price $284,900 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

21. 2025-10-30
    price $289,900 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

22. 2025-10-02
    listed $295,900 Active 1017-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1017 chars)

    Discover tranquil living in this spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the heart of Benton. The thoughtful split floor plan offers a delightful main level with a modern kitchen and dining room, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find all three bedrooms, including a generous master suite featuring its own en-suite bathroom and a large balcony that overlooks serene surroundings. The downstairs boasts a spacious room with a fireplace, which could easily be converted into a large game room or family room, giving you endless possibilities for customization.This home is ideally situated just minutes away from the Ocoee and Hiwassee Rivers, Cherokee National Forest, and numerous Tennessee State Parks, providing endless outdoor adventures. Additionally, the property comes with an extra .91-acre city lot directly behind the home, offering even more space for outdoor activities or future development. Experience the peace and excitement of nature, all while enjoying the comforts of your own home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $907 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,045/yr (+$87/mo · 115.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$907
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$12,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk County
• NCES district ID: 4703450
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,990
• Composite: 26.72/100
• National rank: #7149
• State rank: #44 of 139 in TN

Livability — Benton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #11569

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Benton, TN
• Population (ZIP): 5,340

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,734 people
• By 2030: 16,567 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 16,015 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 15,172 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 12,998 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 10,606 · -36.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.1) · D 15.5% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.0pp · 2024: -68.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.1 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+37.2 2008: R+33.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 120.96%
• Current HPI: 478.7945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $274,999 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $279,999 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $282,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $284,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $289,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $295,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $907 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.