6321 Roberts Dr · Victor, NY 14564

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured

Built 2010 Good condition 435 sqft lot Est $187k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained home in the most popular area of the Gypsum Mills Community. The home is located towards the back of the community with forever wild and a pond across the street you can enjoy on the covered porch. Enter through the front door to the foyer with a coat closet. The eat-in Kitchen is very spacious with large bay windows, a brick arch over the oven/range, oversized window above the sink and tons of cabinets. The formal Dining Room has room for a 6-8 person table and a hutch or side board. The Living Room has plenty of room for a large sectional. The 3rd Bedroom is near the Living Room and is now utilized as an Office. There is another Bedroom, Bathroom, Laundry Room and a

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.6% in Victor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in NY, #1,991 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #222 of 590 in NY (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,592
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6330 Kims Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-3%)	6mo	$155,000	$84	80
6300 Lambert St #535	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-8%)	1mo	$205,000	$116	79
1015 Volkman Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,848 (-3%)	1mo	$196,000	$106	78
999 Volkman Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-6%)	2mo	$160,000	$90	76
6289 Lambert St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,682 (-12%)	2mo	$180,000	$107	74
971 Gypsum Mills St #441	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,720 (-10%)	2mo	$128,500	$75	63
6382 Roberts Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	2mo	$165,000	$98	60
6349 Kims Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	7mo	$134,000	$80	58
6393 Kims Dr Unit B144C	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-15%)	1mo	$109,040	$67	50
6371 Kims #349	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-15%)	6mo	$132,000	$81	48
6341 Murphy Dr Unit C004	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-15%)	7mo	$161,350	$100	44
6381 Roberts Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-12%)	7mo	$174,900	$104	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,206
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $59,597
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14564

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $693	+0% $627	+5% $561	+10% $496
Rent	-10% $433	-5% $530	+0% $627	+5% $724	+10% $821
Rate	-1.0pp $723	-0.5pp $675	base $627	+0.5pp $578	+1.0pp $528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6141 Cedar Creek Way Farmington, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1272	$2,375	$1.87	3d	17	0.63mi
6316 Bentley Dr Victor, NY	2.0	1.5	1500	$2,400	$1.60	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $189,900
2. 2026-05-20
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $4,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $6,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. Painting the exterior siding and upgrading the HVAC system would be the highest-ROI updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and the home's overall appearance, which can increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, which can increase the home's value for both resale and rental.
• Both Add a front porch or landscaping — Adding a front porch or landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and the home's overall appearance, which can increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — Upgrading the HVAC system can improve energy efficiency and comfort, which can increase the home's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a front porch or landscaping — Adding a front porch or landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629640
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $73,046
• Composite: 52.43/100
• National rank: #1575
• State rank: #222 of 590 in NY

Livability — Victor

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #1991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 16,364
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,364
• Household income: $115,625
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 357.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.90%
• Current HPI: 279.9821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $189,900 UNYREIS