1013 Elm Dr · Grants, NM 87020

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · Other · 41 Days on market

Built 1977 $91/sqft · 51% above area ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 BR, 2 bath home with 2 car garage located in a convenient Grants, NM location with plenty of potential and long-term value. Features a functional layout, spacious yard, and solid bones ready for your personal touch. Ideal for a primary residence, second home, or addition to a rental portfolio. Located near schools, shopping, dining, and major road access. A great opportunity to create something special while building equity in an established neighborhood.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Near schools
• Solid bones

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• SOLID BONES
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces east; Resale property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Metal pitched roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free‑standing gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Double-pane insulated windows; Carpet, laminate and tile flooring; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#115 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, employment D.
• Grants-Cibola County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #74 of 95 in NM (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mount Taylor Elementary (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #17 of 68 statewide, top 34%, 413 students, 100% FRL); Los Alamitos Middle (418 students, 100% FRL); Grants High (843 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+32 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Grants-Cibola County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cibola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,350
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 51.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,350
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,911
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87020

• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $200	+0% $158	+5% $117	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $109	+0% $158	+5% $208	+10% $257
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $189	base $158	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $120,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    listed $140,000 Active 465-char remark
16. 2016-01-28
    soldstatus
17. 2011-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$13
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3
• After-tax cash flow: $1,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants-Cibola County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501170
• Math proficiency: 14% —
• Reading proficiency: 22% —
• Median HH income: $35,996
• Composite: 18.23/100
• National rank: #14064
• State rank: #74 of 95 in NM

Livability — Grants

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #19558

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants, NM
• Population (ZIP): 11,874

Population outlook (Cibola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,324 people
• By 2030: 25,594 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 24,117 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 22,568 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,653 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 12,719 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cibola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 29.6pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.40%
• Current HPI: 167.6417
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $120,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $130,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $140,000 Southwest MLS
• 2016-01-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-28.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $31 · -93.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.