84136 Avenue 44, #627 #627 · Indio, CA 92203

$122,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 154 Days on market

Built 1993 2,178 sqft lot $306/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · at est. $570/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rancho Casa Blanca is a 55+ Active Lifestyle Resort Community where you own the land & is perfect for your winter hideaway. Rancho Casa Blanca (RCB) features a beautifully landscaped 80-acre property with 801 individual Park Model homes/or RV sites, Two large clubhouses that function as social hubs & 4 satellite buildings with laundry facilities, mailboxes, heated pools & relaxing spas. As an owner you will enjoy FREE GOLF on your 18-hole par 3 golf course, a 9-hole putting course, 2 practice chipping/putting greens, 6 heated pools/spas, 2 tennis courts, 8 pickle ball courts, shuffleboard courts, horseshoe pitch, fitness center & over 60 Clubs & Classes.

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Landscaped property
• Putting course

Tags

• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• CLUBHOUSES
• HEATED POOLS
• GOLF COURSE
• PUTTING COURSE
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($578/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Indio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $847 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,107
• List price: $122,500
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84136 Avenue 44 #477	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$238	99
84136 Ave 44, #567 #567	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	1mo	$90,000	$225	99
84136 Ave 44, #262 #262	0.11mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	0mo	$192,500	$481	95
84136 84136 Avenue 44, #325 #325	0.08mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	2mo	$79,000	$198	94
84136 Ave 44, #29 #29	0.10mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	1mo	$90,000	$225	94
84136 Avenue 44, #449 #449	0.12mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	3mo	$230,000	$575	92
84136 Ave 44, #385 #385	0.13mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	3mo	$178,000	$445	92
754 Ave 44 #754	0.14mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	3mo	$101,500	$254	91
84136 Ave 44 #122	0.15mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	2mo	$125,000	$313	91
84136 Ave 44, #744 #744	0.20mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	2mo	$176,000	$440	89
84136 Ave 44, 658 #658	0.19mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	3mo	$102,500	$256	89
84136 Ave 44, 675 #675	0.20mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	3mo	$205,000	$513	89

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-7,423
• Equity at exit: $18,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $39,938
• Equity at exit: $10,592

Cash invested: $34,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92203

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $122,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,625
• Closing costs: $3,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,500 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,500 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,500 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,500 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,500 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,500 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,500 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,500 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $122,500 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,500 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,500 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,500 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-01-15
    listed $122,500 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Rancho Casa Blanca is a 55+ Active Lifestyle Resort Community where you own the land & is perfect for your winter hideaway. Rancho Casa Blanca (RCB) features a beautifully landscaped 80-acre property with 801 individual Park Model homes/or RV sites, Two large clubhouses that function as social hubs & 4 satellite buildings with laundry facilities, mailboxes, heated pools & relaxing spas. As an owner you will enjoy FREE GOLF on your 18-hole par 3 golf course, a 9-hole putting course, 2 practice chipping/putting greens, 6 heated pools/spas, 2 tennis courts, 8 pickle ball courts, shuffleboard courts, horseshoe pitch, fitness center & over 60 Clubs & Classes.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 86.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥115°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,862
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$3,564
• Taxable loss: −$1,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Indio

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #24244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indio, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 100,560
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,735
• Household income: $97,311
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 565.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 41% Two or more races 29% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.51%
• Current HPI: 295.6456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.64%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $122,500 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2014): $500 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.