2506 Orchid Bay Dr #101 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,445 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1995 $721/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. Three bedrooms with closets, is a rare find in this PRIME LOCATION in beautifully landscaped Pipers Grove of North Naples. The big kitchen has extra cabinets. Many important updates include New AC, New Luxury Vinyl Flooring, New Paint throughout, New appliances, New contemporary blinds, and a recent roof. Enjoy mesmerizing sunsets all year from the lanai's western view. Known for its active social life, Pipers Grove is also rich in amenities; bocce, tennis, walking trails, library, fitness room, recreation pool, lap pool and 2 cabanas. Publix and other stores are only a walk away. Luxury shopping/dining in nearby Merc

Key facts

• Western view
• New paint
• Recent roof

Tags

• NEW AC
• NEW LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• RECENT ROOF
• WESTERN VIEW
• FITNESS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Homestead tax status
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fees billed quarterly; Master HOA fee $699 quarterly; HOA fee $1,463 quarterly; Total annual recurring fees $8,648; One-time fees $150; On-site management; HOA covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, laundry facilities, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, sewer, street lights, trash removal, water; Community amenities include clubhouse, community spa/hot tub, exercise room, library, tennis court, bocce court, bike/jog path, sidewalks, streetlights, BBQ/picnic area, underground utilities; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Covered parking; Detached 1-car carport; Paved driveway and paved parking; Free-standing parking
• Security: Gated community; Entry card access; Entry keypad
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Carriage/coach style building; Built in 1995; Rear exposure faces west; Stucco exterior; Slate roof; Sliding windows; Electric storm shutters; Development: Pipers Grove
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco finish; Slate roof
• Exterior features: Private road; Corner lot; Storage space; Water display / landscaped lake view; Lake waterfront; Reclaimed water irrigation (assessment paid)

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen / dining area; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/freezer; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; First-floor bedroom; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Custom mirrors; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Window coverings; Screened lanai/porch; Laundry in residence; 7 total rooms; 4 ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside the residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $309k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,400/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $911 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $309k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.63%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $44,587
• Equity at exit: $94,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $124,823
• Equity at exit: $117,087

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,142/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$721
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$924
• Net cashflow: $911

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,247

Max offer price $309,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Orchid Bay Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1360	$4,750	$3.49	23d	1	0.05mi
2835 Mizzen Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	23d	1	0.09mi
2730 Sailors Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1700	$9,000	$5.29	23d	1	0.14mi
7518 Silver Trumpet Ln Unit Q102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	13d	1	0.15mi
2864 Mizzen Way Unit Y106 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,200	$3.85	13d	1	0.15mi
7710 Ahoy Ave Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,950	$1.87	23d	1	0.16mi
7416 Plumbago Bridge Rd #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1223	$2,400	$1.96	13d	1	0.17mi
2585 Old Groves Rd Unit L203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1448	$5,500	$3.80	13d	1	0.20mi
2460 Old Groves Rd Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$2,400	$1.96	13d	1	0.22mi
2885 Citrus Lake Dr Unit N103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1249	$5,250	$4.20	13d	1	0.23mi
7762 Gardner Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$6,000	$3.73	23d	1	0.25mi
2608 Sailors Way #122 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1387	$5,500	$3.97	23d	1	0.28mi
2731 Citrus Lake Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$2,500	$1.98	13d	1	0.34mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	23d	1	0.34mi
2860 Citrus Lake Dr Unit R-202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,000	$3.14	13d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$4,500	$3.54	13d	1	0.34mi
2711 Citrus Lake Dr Unit F305 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$5,500	$3.72	13d	1	0.34mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$5,250	$3.80	13d	1	0.35mi
2671 Citrus Lake Dr Unit E-303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$3,500	$2.54	13d	1	0.35mi
2880 Citrus Lake Dr Unit Q201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,495	$1.57	13d	1	0.36mi
3048 Horizon Ln #1104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$5,150	$2.83	23d	1	0.36mi
2651 Citrus Lake Dr Unit D302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,000	$4.00	13d	1	0.39mi
3051 Horizon Ln #1803 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$5,100	$3.44	23d	1	0.40mi
2611 Citrus Lake Dr Unit C-203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$5,500	$3.22	13d	1	0.41mi
7822 Gardner Dr Unit 6-101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1607	$2,500	$1.56	23d	1	0.42mi
2541 Citrus Lake Dr Unit A-205 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1590	$5,250	$3.30	13d	1	0.44mi
3035 Horizon Ln #2206 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1246	$6,000	$4.82	23d	1	0.45mi
2729 Branch Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,650	$2.03	23d	1	0.46mi
3015 Horizon Ln #2702 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,790	$1.28	23d	1	0.47mi
3062 Driftwood Way #4301 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1573	$6,500	$4.13	23d	1	0.48mi
2662 Bolero Dr Unit 10 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1768	$15,000	$8.48	23d	1	0.51mi
2654 Bolero Dr Unit 8-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$20,000	$11.31	23d	1	0.52mi
3009 Driftwood Way #2802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,000	$1.43	23d	1	0.52mi
3057 Driftwood Way #4004 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$6,400	$3.52	23d	1	0.54mi
2625 Estrella Dr Unit 15-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1768	$18,000	$10.18	23d	1	0.54mi
7030 Lone Oak Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$6,400	$3.76	13d	1	0.55mi
3017 Driftwood Way #3001 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$5,000	$3.61	23d	1	0.57mi
3049 Driftwood Way #3806 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1818	$4,700	$2.59	23d	1	0.58mi
3025 Driftwood Way #3203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$3,900	$3.12	23d	1	0.62mi
7791 Esmeralda Way #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$1,950	$1.91	13d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $721 · $8,652/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $309,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $339,000 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,423/yr (+$119/mo · 124.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,142
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,224
• − Management: −$4,224
• − HOA: −$8,652
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable income: $6,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,612
• After-tax cash flow: $9,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+263.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $339,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1995-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $93,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,142 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.