14215 Pecan Park #100 · Harbison Canyon, CA 92021

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 1998 4,500 sqft lot Est $262k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +1.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home offering 1,456 square feet of comfortable living space. This home features a spacious and functional layout that has been exceptionally well cared for, making it truly move in ready. Step outside to an incredible backyard designed for both relaxation and entertaining. Enjoy a fully upgraded outdoor space complete with a jacuzzi, multiple large storage sheds, mature trees, and plenty of room to host. It truly feels like your own private retreat. Additional highlights include four covered parking spaces and an unbeatable space rent of only $855. Priced under $300,000, this is an incredible opportunity that will not last long.

Key facts

• Private retreat
• Jacuzzi
• Mature trees

Tags

• FULLY UPGRADED OUTDOOR SPACE
• JACUZZI
• MULTIPLE LARGE STORAGE SHEDS
• MATURE TREES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• FOUR COVERED PARKING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size per assessor's data (0-1 unit/acre)
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $855
• HOA & community: Pecan Community Association; Manager approval required; Land lease community

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; 4 carport spaces
• Utilities: Located in a land-lease community with monthly land lease; Land lease charged monthly
• Home design: Single-story mobile/manufactured property; Entry on front side; Has a view
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Mobile dimensions approximately 13 ft by 56 ft
• Exterior features: Community pool; Located in foothills community; Mobile home remains on site; Two sheds

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Single-level home; Front door entry; All bedrooms on the main level; Has cooling (wall/window units)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Harbison Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,111 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,047/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14215 Pecan Park Ln 124 Ln #124	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$282,500	$188	89
14215 Pecan Park Ln #101	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	7mo	$205,000	$142	87
14215 Pecan Park Ln Spc 28	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-6%)	6mo	$185,000	$136	79
14215 Pecan Park Ln #25	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (+3%)	16mo	$295,000	$197	75
14360 Rios Canyon Rd Spc 11	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-9%)	9mo	$272,000	$205	66
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 133	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+2%)	12mo	$305,000	$204	54
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 39	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+5%)	14mo	$274,500	$180	48
9395 Harritt Rd #80	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	17mo	$155,000	$108	46
9395 Harritt Rd #253	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	24mo	$211,000	$147	45
9395 Harritt Rd #159	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	21mo	$230,000	$160	44
9395 Harritt Rd #109	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-9%)	12mo	$345,000	$260	44
9395 Harritt Rd Spc 123	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	18mo	$250,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-15,960
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,699
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92021

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13893 Pinkard Way #84 El Cajon, CA	3.0	2.5	1464	$3,200	$2.19	14d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,279 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,627/yr (+$136/mo · 249.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,925
• − Management: −$2,925
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $3,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$729
• After-tax cash flow: $7,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — Harbison Canyon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1111
• US rank: #25583

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harbison Canyon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,501
• Household income: $74,013
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4178.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Arab 6% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.88%
• Current HPI: 335.0617
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $299,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.