149 Berlin St · Montpelier, VT 05602

$279,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1870 6,098 sqft lot $239/sqft · 24% below area Est $369k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on Berlin Street, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers easy access to downtown Montpelier, the Hunger Mountain Co-op, Central Vermont Medical Center, and nearby amenities, with a bus stop close by. The home features a front porch with views of the Winooski River, along with a storage shed for additional space. Previously used as a rental, the property presents an opportunity for the next owner to make it their own. Sellers have not occupied the property. Sellers are related to the listing agent.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1870
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.4% in Montpelier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in VT, #670 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,630 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,238
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -24.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Charles St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+1%)	13mo	$390,000	$332	73
18 Charles St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,112 (-5%)	19mo	$435,000	$391	66
161 River St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,148 (-2%)	11mo	$284,500	$248	63
5 Crescent Ln	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-8%)	11mo	$390,000	$361	52
259 Berlin St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (-4%)	18mo	$360,000	$321	42
5 Wilder St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+14%)	16mo	$320,000	$241	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-20,992
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $12,858
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05602

• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,359/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $459	+0% $381	+5% $302	+10% $223
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $270	+0% $381	+5% $491	+10% $602
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $451	base $381	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 Forest Dr #3 Montpelier, VT	2.0	1.0	972	$2,800	$2.88	44d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $279,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $279,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Located on Berlin Street, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers easy access to downtown Montpelier, the Hunger Mountain Co-op, Central Vermont Medical Center, and nearby amenities, with a bus stop close by. The home features a front porch with views of the Winooski River, along with a storage shed for additional space. Previously used as a rental, the property presents an opportunity for the next owner to make it their own. Sellers have not occupied the property. Sellers are related to the listing agent.

17. 2026-04-18
    historical $279,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Located on Berlin Street, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers easy access to downtown Montpelier, the Hunger Mountain Co-op, Central Vermont Medical Center, and nearby amenities, with a bus stop close by. The home features a front porch with views of the Winooski River, along with a storage shed for additional space. Previously used as a rental, the property presents an opportunity for the next owner to make it their own. Sellers have not occupied the property. Sellers are related to the listing agent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,359 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,830 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,471/yr (+$123/mo · 62.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,359
• − Insurance: −$2,062
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $59
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$14
• After-tax cash flow: $4,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Montpelier

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #670

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montpelier, VT
• Population (ZIP): 12,491

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -195.34%
• Current HPI: 344.3382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $279,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $279,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+20.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,359 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.