16-412 Aina Pua St · Tiki Gardens, HI 96760

$355,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,206 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 8,689 sqft lot $294/sqft · at area comps Est $352k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tiki Gardens Subdivision, ideally located along the main boulevard just across from Ainaloa. This emerging neighborhood is quickly becoming one of Puna’s most desirable areas for new construction, offering strong potential for future appreciation. This brand-new two-story home blends smart design with excellent value, making it a great option for first-time buyers, those transitioning from renting to owning, or investors looking to build equity. The thoughtfully planned 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout maximizes space and functionality while maintaining a comfortable, modern feel. Built up rather than out, the home sits on a fully fenced and gated 8,100 sq. ft. lot, allowing for privacy and efficient use of land. All three bedrooms are located upstairs, creating separation from the main living areas and enhancing everyday flow. The upstairs bathroom features a large vanity and walk-in shower, while the bedrooms offer ample space for family or guests. Downstairs, the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas are bright and inviting with plenty of natural light and airflow. The kitchen showcases attractive cabinetry, durable quartz countertops, and a functional island that anchors the space. A second full bathroom with a tub and shower combination and generous vanity adds convenience. An under-stair closet provides extra storage or flexible use. The compact carport is practical for everyday needs, with potential to expand or enclose in the future. With over 1,200 square feet of interior living space, this home offers low-maintenance living and long-term flexibility. Tiki Gardens provides easy access to shopping, dining, and schools, and is just a 20-minute drive to Hilo. With nearby communities already experiencing growth, this reasonably priced and functional home presents an excellent opportunity in a growing subdivision.

Key facts

• 8,689 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keonepoko Elementary School (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #169 of 183 statewide, top 93%, 562 students, 75% FRL); Pahoa High & Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 723 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawaii Department Of Education average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,000 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.77%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,898
• List price: $355,000
• Delta: 0.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16-1995 Silversword Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,206 (0%)	8mo	$355,000	$294	79
16-1980 Sandalwood Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-2%)	5mo	$352,000	$296	77
16-423 Aina Pua St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,315 (+9%)	9mo	$310,000	$236	75
16-2046 Tiki Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,208 (+0%)	12mo	$363,000	$300	70
16-2039 Uilani Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-0%)	6mo	$415,000	$346	63
16-2166 Aloha Dr	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,246 (+3%)	21mo	$385,000	$309	60
16-2003 Silversword Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	6mo	$335,000	$317	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $14,025
• Equity at exit: $161,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $90,645
• Equity at exit: $250,170

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96760

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,105

Max offer price $285,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-356	+0% $-478	+5% $-601	+10% $-724
Rent	-10% $-676	-5% $-577	+0% $-478	+5% $-380	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-300	-0.5pp $-388	base $-478	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16-1840 34th Ave Keaau, HI	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	19d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $355,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $355,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $355,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $355,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $355,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $355,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $355,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $355,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $355,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $355,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $355,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $355,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    listed $355,000 Active 1867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1867 chars)

    Welcome to Tiki Gardens Subdivision, ideally located along the main boulevard just across from Ainaloa. This emerging neighborhood is quickly becoming one of Puna’s most desirable areas for new construction, offering strong potential for future appreciation. This brand-new two-story home blends smart design with excellent value, making it a great option for first-time buyers, those transitioning from renting to owning, or investors looking to build equity. The thoughtfully planned 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout maximizes space and functionality while maintaining a comfortable, modern feel. Built up rather than out, the home sits on a fully fenced and gated 8,100 sq. ft. lot, allowing for privacy and efficient use of land. All three bedrooms are located upstairs, creating separation from the main living areas and enhancing everyday flow. The upstairs bathroom features a large vanity and walk-in shower, while the bedrooms offer ample space for family or guests. Downstairs, the open-concept living, dining, and kitchen areas are bright and inviting with plenty of natural light and airflow. The kitchen showcases attractive cabinetry, durable quartz countertops, and a functional island that anchors the space. A second full bathroom with a tub and shower combination and generous vanity adds convenience. An under-stair closet provides extra storage or flexible use. The compact carport is practical for everyday needs, with potential to expand or enclose in the future. With over 1,200 square feet of interior living space, this home offers low-maintenance living and long-term flexibility. Tiki Gardens provides easy access to shopping, dining, and schools, and is just a 20-minute drive to Hilo. With nearby communities already experiencing growth, this reasonably priced and functional home presents an excellent opportunity in a growing subdivision.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$12,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,907
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Tiki Gardens

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tiki Gardens, HI
• Population (ZIP): 4,144

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.85)
• Race & ethnicity: Two or more races 45% Hispanic / Latino 24% Asian 22% White 20% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 13%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 11% Russian 9% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% German/W. Germanic 6% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.09%
• Current HPI: 154.499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $355,000 HI Information Service