20683 Waalew Unit B37 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1976 $117/sqft · 75% above area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful renovated manufactured home, Thoughtfully updated from top to bottom. This move-in-ready property features modern finishes, updated flooring, refreshed interior paint, and upgraded fixtures throughtout. The open living space offers a bright and inviting atmosphere, while the updated kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, improved bathrooms, and functional layouts make this home both comfortable and practical. This renovated manufactured home offers style, comfort, and value.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.41%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,500
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 75.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20843 Waalew #39	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	3mo	$55,000	$53	82
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B64	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+12%)	9mo	$60,000	$52	73
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B188	0.00mi	2/2.0	930 (-9%)	16mo	$67,000	$72	72
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C146	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+3%)	11mo	$85,000	$80	70
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B23	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+13%)	12mo	$95,000	$82	69
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C14	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	972 (-5%)	7mo	$64,000	$66	65
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C164	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+13%)	2mo	$77,000	$67	61
20843 Waalew C57 Unit C57	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	3mo	$68,500	$59	55
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C92	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	5mo	$75,000	$65	53
20843 Waalew Unit C4	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+15%)	1mo	$71,000	$60	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $22,885
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $87,036
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $259/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $887

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21225 Wigwam Rd Unit 2 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	43d	1	1.02mi
15866 Sago Rd Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	996	$1,750	$1.76	24d	1	1.12mi
15728 Sago Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	24d	1	1.26mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	43d	1	1.30mi
20316 Rimrock Rd E Unit 3 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	43d	1	1.40mi
20130 Rimrock Rd E Apt B Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	20d	1	1.44mi
20236 Pawhuska Rd Unit 4 Apple Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,400	$1.61	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $120,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful renovated manufactured home, Thoughtfully updated from top to bottom. This move-in-ready property features modern finishes, updated flooring, refreshed interior paint, and upgraded fixtures throughtout. The open living space offers a bright and inviting atmosphere, while the updated kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, improved bathrooms, and functional layouts make this home both comfortable and practical. This renovated manufactured home offers style, comfort, and value.

16. 2026-03-30
    price $125,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful renovated manufactured home, Thoughtfully updated from top to bottom. This move-in-ready property features modern finishes, updated flooring, refreshed interior paint, and upgraded fixtures throughtout. The open living space offers a bright and inviting atmosphere, while the updated kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, improved bathrooms, and functional layouts make this home both comfortable and practical. This renovated manufactured home offers style, comfort, and value.

17. 2026-03-17
    listed $135,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful renovated manufactured home, Thoughtfully updated from top to bottom. This move-in-ready property features modern finishes, updated flooring, refreshed interior paint, and upgraded fixtures throughtout. The open living space offers a bright and inviting atmosphere, while the updated kitchen provides ample cabinetry and counter space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, improved bathrooms, and functional layouts make this home both comfortable and practical. This renovated manufactured home offers style, comfort, and value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $259 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$653/yr (+$54/mo · 252.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$259
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,519
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $5,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $125,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $135,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $259 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.