9 Cottonwood Ln · Palestine, TX 75803

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured · 183 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

??Home must be moved to buyer's location?? Check out this beautiful 2022 4-bedroom 2-bathroom mobile home! This house offers plenty of room for family living, guests, or home office setup. This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes throughout and a large center island. This is a great opportunity to secure a nearly new home and have it placed on your land or farm!

Key facts

• Built 2022
• Listed 183 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.9% in Palestine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#657 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Westwood ISD (town): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #659 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anderson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.95%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,550
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $17,230
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75803

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $330	+0% $278	+5% $227	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $213	+0% $278	+5% $344	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $317	base $278	+0.5pp $240	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2025-12-11
    listed $150,000 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    ??Home must be moved to buyer's location?? Check out this beautiful 2022 4-bedroom 2-bathroom mobile home! This house offers plenty of room for family living, guests, or home office setup. This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes throughout and a large center island. This is a great opportunity to secure a nearly new home and have it placed on your land or farm!

12. 2025-09-05
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,013
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$243
• After-tax cash flow: $3,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly new 2022 4-bedroom 2-bathroom mobile home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a large center island. It's ready for immediate move-in and offers a great opportunity for a nearly new home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westwood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,200
• Composite: 24.41/100
• National rank: #7684
• State rank: #659 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palestine

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #12357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,531
• Population (ZIP): 21,390

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,663 people
• By 2030: 57,373 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 58,960 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 59,073 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 53,737 · -5.2%
• By 2100: 42,516 · -25.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 18.8% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.92%
• Current HPI: 186.4885
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Listed $150,000 PAOR
• 2025-09-05 Listed $150,000 PAOR