188 Lake Dr · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1979 0.83 ac lot $141/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A blacktop drive leads to this well maintained lakeview property. The home offers a living room with brick FP, dining room with sliders to a rear deck, kitchen 3 BRs, bath & laundry area. The larger lot size allows for lots of privacy. Sq. ft. is approx. , Sewer: WS Comm Central

Key facts

• New siding
• Gated lake community
• New roof

Tags

• ENCAPSULATION OF CRAWLSPACE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW FRONT DECK
• DOUBLE LOT PROPERTY
• GATED LAKE COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Marcel Lake subdivision; additional parcels included with the lot
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated entry, clubhouse and recreation facilities; Annual association fee of $1,692.04 (approximately $141/month); Association fee includes security and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with 3 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family house; Residential property; No common walls
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a single-story (1,008 above-grade finished area)
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved private road access; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes sleeping areas)
• Flooring: Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Unfurnished; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.6% in Birchwood Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $135k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.89%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $95,519
• Equity at exit: $121,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $264,421
• Equity at exit: $262,275

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,798/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$141
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,441

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $381	+0% $343	+5% $305	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $269	+0% $343	+5% $417	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $411	-0.5pp $377	base $343	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,950	$1.90	0d	1	1.48mi
143 Nichecronk Rd Dingmans Ferry, PA	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,800	$1.76	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $141 · $1,692/yr
• Likely covers: sewer

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 263-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,798 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,798
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − HOA: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$539
• After-tax cash flow: $3,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+95.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $135,000 PMAR
• 2014-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $68,085 Public Records
• 2014-07-25 Sold (MLS) $68,065 PWMLS
• 2012-07-06 Listed $69,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,798 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.