17928 SE 107th Ct · The Villages, FL 34491

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1993 7,841 sqft lot Est $159k · 22% under $175/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MINT CONDITION POPULAR 2 BD, 2 BA PECAN MODEL HOME; MOVE-IN-READY, LOCATED IN A FRIENDLY & CHARMING 55+ GATED COMMUNITY IN SPRUCE CREEK SOUTH. HOME FEATURES A 9X15 ENCLOSED LANAI WITH ACRYLIC WINDOWS AND A/C. HOME HAS A PAINTED DRIVEWAY, 2 CAR GARAGE WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR YOUR CAR & GOLF CART. SPACIOUS YARD WITH PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN HOMES. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A RECENTLY UPDATE COMMUNITY CENTER, YEAR-ROUND HEATED POOL/JACUZZI; APPROX. 10 ACRES REFERRED TO AS A "NATURE WALK & DOG TRAIL"; BEAUTIFUL GOLF COURSE WITH NEWLY UPGRADED GREENS AND TEE BOXES THERE ARE MANY ACTIVITIES & SOCIAL GROUPS, INCLUDING PICKLE-BALL & TENNIS COURTS. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF THE VILLAGES AND SPANISH SPRINGS SQUARE; SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS; MEDICAL FACILITIES & MAJOR HIGHWAYS. WITH SO MANY CONVENIENCES, YOU MAY NEVER WANT TO LEAVE HOME.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Fresh updates
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• SCREENED IN LANAI
• FRESH UPDATES
• KITCHEN DINING ROOM COMBO
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stanton-Weirsdale Elementary School (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 544 students, 70% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,264
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8048 County Road 109	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	23mo	$172,000	$163	49
10235 SE 179th Pl	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+14%)	2mo	$180,599	$158	44
13769 County Road 109f	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+14%)	20mo	$140,000	$122	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,286
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,587
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,652/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,291

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $643	-5% $607	+0% $572	+5% $536	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $413	-5% $492	+0% $572	+5% $651	+10% $731
Rate	-1.0pp $635	-0.5pp $604	base $572	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	0.33mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	23d	1	0.58mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	0.78mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	23d	1	0.93mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,720	$1.67	22d	38	1.03mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,639	$1.52	22d	36	1.04mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	1.19mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	23d	1	1.32mi
17472 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,950	$1.47	15d	1	1.36mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	25d	1	1.38mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-02-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   price $125,000
3. 2025-11-18
   price $175,000
4. 2025-09-26
   listed $180,000 Active
5. 2018-07-31
   soldstatus $118,900
6. 2018-07-27
   soldstatus $118,900 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   MINT CONDITION POPULAR 2 BD, 2 BA PECAN MODEL HOME; MOVE-IN-READY, LOCATED IN A FRIENDLY & CHARMING 55+ GATED COMMUNITY IN SPRUCE CREEK SOUTH. HOME FEATURES A 9X15 ENCLOSED LANAI WITH ACRYLIC WINDOWS AND A/C. HOME HAS A PAINTED DRIVEWAY, 2 CAR GARAGE WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR YOUR CAR & GOLF CART. SPACIOUS YARD WITH PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN HOMES. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A RECENTLY UPDATE COMMUNITY CENTER, YEAR-ROUND HEATED POOL/JACUZZI; APPROX. 10 ACRES REFERRED TO AS A "NATURE WALK & DOG TRAIL"; BEAUTIFUL GOLF COURSE WITH NEWLY UPGRADED GREENS AND TEE BOXES THERE ARE MANY ACTIVITIES & SOCIAL GROUPS, INCLUDING PICKLE-BALL & TENNIS COURTS. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF THE VILLAGES AND SPANISH SPRINGS SQUARE; SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS; MEDICAL FACILITIES & MAJOR HIGHWAYS. WITH SO MANY CONVENIENCES, YOU MAY NEVER WANT TO LEAVE HOME.

7. 2018-04-22
   listed $111,900 893-char remark

   Show marketing remark (893 chars)

   MINT CONDITION POPULAR 2 BD, 2 BA PECAN MODEL HOME; MOVE-IN-READY, LOCATED IN A FRIENDLY & CHARMING 55+ GATED COMMUNITY IN SPRUCE CREEK SOUTH. HOME FEATURES A 9X15 ENCLOSED LANAI WITH ACRYLIC WINDOWS AND A/C. HOME HAS A PAINTED DRIVEWAY, 2 CAR GARAGE WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR YOUR CAR & GOLF CART. SPACIOUS YARD WITH PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN HOMES. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A RECENTLY UPDATE COMMUNITY CENTER, YEAR-ROUND HEATED POOL/JACUZZI; APPROX. 10 ACRES REFERRED TO AS A "NATURE WALK & DOG TRAIL"; BEAUTIFUL GOLF COURSE WITH NEWLY UPGRADED GREENS AND TEE BOXES THERE ARE MANY ACTIVITIES & SOCIAL GROUPS, INCLUDING PICKLE-BALL & TENNIS COURTS. CONVENIENTLY LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF THE VILLAGES AND SPANISH SPRINGS SQUARE; SHOPPING, RESTAURANTS; MEDICAL FACILITIES & MAJOR HIGHWAYS. WITH SO MANY CONVENIENCES, YOU MAY NEVER WANT TO LEAVE HOME.

8. 2018-04-17
   historical
9. 2018-04-17
   historical
10. 2017-10-31
    listed $111,900
11. 2017-10-31
    listed $111,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,652 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,652
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $5,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $118,900 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $118,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-22 Listed $111,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Listed $111,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Listed $111,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,652 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.