1218 Alisa Ln · Arlington, TX 76014

$205,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,933 sqft · Townhouse public records · 345 Days on market

Built 2022 2,047 sqft lot $106/sqft · 17% below area Est $248k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2022
• Listed 344 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-887/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, commute F.
• Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 345 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 345 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,500
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -17.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,264
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,635
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76014

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,641/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $191,944

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Nandina Dr Arlington, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,160	$2.10	1d	47	0.17mi
3510 Daniel Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$1,975	$1.31	24d	1	0.29mi
1206 Brook Hill Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,995	$1.25	3d	1	0.36mi
3501 Green Hill Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,499	$1.86	43d	1	0.41mi
3414 Chesapeake Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,950	$1.16	15d	1	0.43mi
3414 Chesapeake Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,950	$1.16	43d	1	0.43mi
3401 Shea Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,800	$0.98	4d	1	0.66mi
107 Hidalgo Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,095	$1.57	43d	1	0.77mi
800 Custer St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,925	$1.27	43d	1	0.82mi
1505 Hanover Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,183	$1.26	2d	1	0.87mi
1002 Candlewick St Arlington, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,300	$1.22	24d	1	0.87mi
1003 Candlewick St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,106	$1.71	7d	1	0.90mi
2082 Knoll Crest Dr Arlington, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,860	$1.74	43d	1	0.90mi
4806 Shadyway Dr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,300	$1.69	24d	1	1.02mi
1013 Terrebonne Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,390	$1.53	13d	1	1.14mi
3012 Barrington Ct Arlington, TX	4.0	3.0	2349	$2,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.15mi
913 E Timberview Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,950	$1.29	5d	1	1.18mi
2219 Foxcroft Ln Arlington, TX	3.0	1.0	1302	$1,850	$1.42	14d	1	1.18mi
1805 Crimson Ct Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,925	$1.46	43d	1	1.21mi
300 Bardin Greene Dr Arlington, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,127	$2.24	2d	35	1.26mi
1408 Seely St Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	2125	$2,350	$1.11	4d	1	1.31mi
305 Ranch Dr Arlington, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$2,432	$2.33	2d	19	1.34mi
2509 E Williamsburg Mnr Arlington, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,996	$1.35	20d	1	1.34mi
4624 Windstone Dr Arlington, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,966	$2.04	2d	14	1.45mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 345 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 344 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 343 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 342 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 336 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 335 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 331 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 330 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 329 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 327 DOM
14. 2025-10-25
    status Active
15. 2025-10-07
    historical Active Under Contract
16. 2025-07-08
    listed $205,000 Active
17. 2025-07-01
    historical
18. 2025-04-01
    status Active
19. 2025-03-31
    historical
20. 2025-02-14
    status Active
21. 2025-02-06
    status Pending
22. 2025-01-06
    status Pending, Continue to Show
23. 2024-12-30
    status Option Pending
24. 2024-10-08
    status Active
25. 2024-10-08
    historical
26. 2024-10-06
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,641 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,641 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$7,641
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arlington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808700
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,873
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7458
• State rank: #629 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2697

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 366,588
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,818
• Household income: $60,333
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 25% Black 24% White 19% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 35% Vietnamese 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.12%
• Current HPI: 344.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-06 Listed $205,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+50.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,641 · +42.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.