288 Cardinal Way Cir · Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1996 10,236 sqft lot $70/sqft · 34% below area Est $128k · 34% under $35/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect getaway with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom camp/permanent home at Lake Sam Rayburn. Ideal for weekends at the lake or enjoying time at the deer lease, this property offers a versatile retreat for outdoor enthusiasts. Or enjoy the property as a full time address in the small community of Brookeland! Take advantage of access to Rayburn Resort's fantastic amenities, including a community pool, top tier golf, sports courts, restaurants, and a coffee house—all just a short drive from Lake Sam Rayburn. Don’t miss your chance to own a weekend escape in this desirable location!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Top tier golf
• Coffee house

Tags

• DETACHED CAMP HOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TOP TIER GOLF
• SPORTS COURTS
• RESTAURANTS
• COFFEE HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 1.6% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.12%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,000
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -33.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Bluejay Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$128,000	$105	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $20,595
• Equity at exit: $30,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $58,341
• Equity at exit: $41,170

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $304	+0% $280	+5% $256	+10% $232
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $237	+0% $280	+5% $323	+10% $365
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $302	base $280	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-02-17
    price $90,000 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Discover the perfect getaway with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom detached camp house at Lake Sam Rayburn. Ideal for weekends at the lake or enjoying time at the deer lease, this property offers a versatile retreat for outdoor enthusiasts. Take advantage of access to Rayburn Resort's fantastic amenities, including a community pool, top tier golf, sports courts, restaurants, and a coffee house—all just a short drive from Lake Sam Rayburn. Don’t miss your chance to own a weekend escape in this desirable location!

17. 2026-02-17
    price $90,000 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Discover the perfect getaway with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom detached camp house at Lake Sam Rayburn. Ideal for weekends at the lake or enjoying time at the deer lease, this property offers a versatile retreat for outdoor enthusiasts. Take advantage of access to Rayburn Resort's fantastic amenities, including a community pool, top tier golf, sports courts, restaurants, and a coffee house—all just a short drive from Lake Sam Rayburn. Don’t miss your chance to own a weekend escape in this desirable location!

18. 2025-11-19
    listed $120,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (523 chars)

    Discover the perfect getaway with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom detached camp house at Lake Sam Rayburn. Ideal for weekends at the lake or enjoying time at the deer lease, this property offers a versatile retreat for outdoor enthusiasts. Take advantage of access to Rayburn Resort's fantastic amenities, including a community pool, top tier golf, sports courts, restaurants, and a coffee house—all just a short drive from Lake Sam Rayburn. Don’t miss your chance to own a weekend escape in this desirable location!

19. 2025-11-15
    listed $120,000 Active 606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (606 chars)

    Discover the perfect getaway with this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom camp/permanent home at Lake Sam Rayburn. Ideal for weekends at the lake or enjoying time at the deer lease, this property offers a versatile retreat for outdoor enthusiasts. Or enjoy the property as a full time address in the small community of Brookeland! Take advantage of access to Rayburn Resort's fantastic amenities, including a community pool, top tier golf, sports courts, restaurants, and a coffee house—all just a short drive from Lake Sam Rayburn. Don’t miss your chance to own a weekend escape in this desirable location!

20. 2025-11-14
    historical
21. 2025-11-14
    listed $12,000 Active
22. 2025-11-14
    listed $90,000 Active
23. 2013-07-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$510
• After-tax cash flow: $2,851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookeland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,145
• Composite: 42.74/100
• National rank: #6781
• State rank: #445 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sam Rayburn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+650.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $90,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $120,000 BBOR
• 2025-11-14 Listed $90,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $12,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $683 · -9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.