15 E Way Path · Baiting Hollow, NY 11933

$235,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1954 3,920 sqft lot $350/sqft · 306% above area $721/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own a completely renovated, turnkey charming seasonal cottage in the Woodcliff beachfront community (open April 15 -October 15). This exceptional property blends privacy, character, and an unbeatable coastal location. Close to beach on Long Island Sound, this is one of the few cottages in the community offering water views. Knows as "The Ponderosa", the home sits on a nicely sized lot in a quiet, private court-perfect for a peaceful seaside retreat. Fully and thoughtfully renovated, the home features a brand-new kitchen with modern appliances and the beautifully updated bathroom with custom shower, along with upgrades including the roof, siding, and an oversized cesspool. The inviting 192-square-foot enclosed porch with tongue-and groove cedar walls provides flexible living space filled with with natural light can easily serve as a spacious additional bedroom, home office, or cozy guest retreat-offering flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Whether you are looking for extra room to relax or accommodate visitors, this bonus area adds both comfort and usable area of the house to 864 -square-foot. Inside, the convenience of a brand new stackable washer and dryer, and a well-designed layout including a primary bedroom with large closet. Outdoor living is a standout feature-enjoy an oversized deck with built-in bench seating and water views, ideal for entertaining. A dedicated barbecue area creates the perfect setting for dinners and summer gatherings. Short distance to the beach access and numerous local attractions: North Fork Wineries, top rated dinning, Horseback Riding, Golfing, Atlantis Aquarium, Splish Splash water park, Pumpkin Farms and much more. With two-car parking and location just moments from the beach, this move-in-ready, key-ready property delivers the perfect blend of modern and coastal charm. CASH ONLY SALE -LAND LEASE-$8650.35

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.2% vs local median 5.5% in Baiting Hollow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#953 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $235k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.71%
• DSCR: 6.86
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,871
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 306.07%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Cottage Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	687 (+2%)	12mo	$150,000	$218	85
24 Anchor Path	0.05mi	2/1.0	727 (+8%)	3mo	$199,000	$274	82
11 Cottage Rd	0.04mi	2/1.0	624 (-7%)	16mo	$123,000	$197	73
25 Anchor Path	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	700 (+4%)	12mo	$87,000	$124	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $492,090
• Equity at exit: $109,118

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.78×
• Total profit: $1,104,009
• Equity at exit: $170,898

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,482/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$721
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $7,222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,858

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Cliff Way Calverton, NY	2.0	1.0	672	$12,000	$17.86	24d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $721 · $8,652/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $235,000 Active 1905-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1905 chars)

    Rare opportunity to own a completely renovated, turnkey charming seasonal cottage in the Woodcliff beachfront community (open April 15 -October 15). This exceptional property blends privacy, character, and an unbeatable coastal location. Close to beach on Long Island Sound, this is one of the few cottages in the community offering water views. Knows as "The Ponderosa", the home sits on a nicely sized lot in a quiet, private court-perfect for a peaceful seaside retreat. Fully and thoughtfully renovated, the home features a brand-new kitchen with modern appliances and the beautifully updated bathroom with custom shower, along with upgrades including the roof, siding, and an oversized cesspool. The inviting 192-square-foot enclosed porch with tongue-and groove cedar walls provides flexible living space filled with with natural light can easily serve as a spacious additional bedroom, home office, or cozy guest retreat-offering flexibility to fit your lifestyle. Whether you are looking for extra room to relax or accommodate visitors, this bonus area adds both comfort and usable area of the house to 864 -square-foot. Inside, the convenience of a brand new stackable washer and dryer, and a well-designed layout including a primary bedroom with large closet. Outdoor living is a standout feature-enjoy an oversized deck with built-in bench seating and water views, ideal for entertaining. A dedicated barbecue area creates the perfect setting for dinners and summer gatherings. Short distance to the beach access and numerous local attractions: North Fork Wineries, top rated dinning, Horseback Riding, Golfing, Atlantis Aquarium, Splish Splash water park, Pumpkin Farms and much more. With two-car parking and location just moments from the beach, this move-in-ready, key-ready property delivers the perfect blend of modern and coastal charm. CASH ONLY SALE -LAND LEASE-$8650.35

15. 2024-08-31
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Solid Well Built Cottage in Desirable Seasonal Beachfront Community of Woodcliff Open April 15-October 15. This home has been Loved and owned by the same owners for Over 60 Years. Nestled in one of the more private Courts of park- This home is called "THE PONDEROSA". With River Rocks surrounding it and a Nice Size lot it sits on, the Possibilities are endless. Numerous updates done throughout. Roof, Siding, Oversized Cesspool, Beautiful enclosed Porch with Tongue & Groove Cedar walls can easily serve as LARGE additional bedroom. Primary bedroom offers two closets, & Custom built wall shelving, 2nd Bedrooms offers a trundle bed with new mattresses, living Room with cozy Free standing fireplace, Ac that cools the entire home, & More, Come Make your memories Here. Short distance to beach access & Numerous local other attractions. Wineries, Horseback Riding, Golfing, Atlantis Aquarium, Splash Splash water park, & Tanger Outlet Shopping. CASH ONLY SALE- LAND LEASE-$7,737.34, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

16. 2024-08-28
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
17. 2024-03-22
    listed $145,000 Active 1059-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1059 chars)

    Solid Well Built Cottage in Desirable Seasonal Beachfront Community of Woodcliff Open April 15-October 15. This home has been Loved and owned by the same owners for Over 60 Years. Nestled in one of the more private Courts of park- This home is called "THE PONDEROSA". With River Rocks surrounding it and a Nice Size lot it sits on, the Possibilities are endless. Numerous updates done throughout. Roof, Siding, Oversized Cesspool, Beautiful enclosed Porch with Tongue & Groove Cedar walls can easily serve as LARGE additional bedroom. Primary bedroom offers two closets, & Custom built wall shelving, 2nd Bedrooms offers a trundle bed with new mattresses, living Room with cozy Free standing fireplace, Ac that cools the entire home, & More, Come Make your memories Here. Short distance to beach access & Numerous local other attractions. Wineries, Horseback Riding, Golfing, Atlantis Aquarium, Splash Splash water park, & Tanger Outlet Shopping. CASH ONLY SALE- LAND LEASE-$7,737.34, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent

18. 2024-02-05
    historical
19. 2023-06-18
    listed $159,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,482 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 30.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,482
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − HOA: −$8,652
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $88,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,276
• After-tax cash flow: $65,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baiting Hollow

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #953
• US rank: #18639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baiting Hollow, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $235,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-31 Sold (MLS) $135,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Sold (MLS) $135,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-22 Listed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-05 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-18 Listed $159,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,482 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.