Muenster Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$275,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Muenster floor plan is a thoughtfully crafted single-story home, perfect for those seeking comfort and practicality. This layout features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a well-balanced space for both relaxation and daily living. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating an ideal setting for entertaining or spending time with loved ones. The primary suite provides a private sanctuary, complete with a well-appointed bath and a walk-in closet for ample storage. Two additional bedrooms are versatile, making them suitable for guests, children, or a home office. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring plenty of room for vehicles and extra belongings. With its blend of functionality and modern design, the Muenster floor plan is a standout choice for a wide range of lifestyles.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 222 days

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,441.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,312 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,441
• List price: $275,990
• Delta: 2.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Harlingen Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-0%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	81
7890 Alset Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-4%)	15mo	$296,900	$188	64
507 Odessa Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-12%)	9mo	$259,900	$179	54
306 Commerce St	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,572 (-4%)	22mo	$299,000	$190	50
1313 Wicklow St	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+12%)	23mo	$309,990	$168	44
213 Harlingen Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+12%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	44
510 Sabino Sky Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,889 (+15%)	2mo	$274,995	$146	42
613 Emerald Blossom Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+10%)	12mo	$299,000	$166	40
316 Dogwood Trl	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-5%)	23mo	$220,000	$140	36
126 Sarah Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-11%)	22mo	$167,900	$115	33
17702 Rolling Hills Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,856 (+13%)	20mo	$250,000	$135	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $119,519
• Equity at exit: $243,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $360,811
• Equity at exit: $525,407

Cash invested: $75,723 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,418
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,057/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $218,697

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-264	+0% $-358	+5% $-451	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-433	+0% $-358	+5% $-282	+10% $-206
Rate	-1.0pp $-221	-0.5pp $-289	base $-358	+0.5pp $-428	+1.0pp $-499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,610
• Closing costs: $8,113
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.79mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	23d	1	1.21mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	23d	1	1.22mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	1.24mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	44d	1	1.30mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	1.32mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	44d	1	1.34mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,990 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,990 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,990 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,990 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,990 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,990 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,990 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,990 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,990 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,990 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-03-07
    price $275,990 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    The Muenster floor plan is a thoughtfully crafted single-story home, perfect for those seeking comfort and practicality. This layout features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a well-balanced space for both relaxation and daily living. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating an ideal setting for entertaining or spending time with loved ones. The primary suite provides a private sanctuary, complete with a well-appointed bath and a walk-in closet for ample storage. Two additional bedrooms are versatile, making them suitable for guests, children, or a home office. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring plenty of room for vehicles and extra belongings. With its blend of functionality and modern design, the Muenster floor plan is a standout choice for a wide range of lifestyles.

16. 2025-11-11
    listed $274,990 Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    The Muenster floor plan is a thoughtfully crafted single-story home, perfect for those seeking comfort and practicality. This layout features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a well-balanced space for both relaxation and daily living. At the heart of the home, the open-concept design connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating an ideal setting for entertaining or spending time with loved ones. The primary suite provides a private sanctuary, complete with a well-appointed bath and a walk-in closet for ample storage. Two additional bedrooms are versatile, making them suitable for guests, children, or a home office. A two-car garage completes the home, ensuring plenty of room for vehicles and extra belongings. With its blend of functionality and modern design, the Muenster floor plan is a standout choice for a wide range of lifestyles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,149
• − Property taxes: −$4,057
• − Insurance: −$1,352
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$7,867
• Taxable loss: −$9,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Listed $274,990 Zillow