502 Arches Ln · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$349,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $243/sqft · 19% below area Est $435k · 19% under $105/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HOMESITE SPECIAL ON LOT 82! This to-be-built Aspen Floor Plan is a stunning 2-story home designed for modern living, featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Step inside and you’re greeted by an open and airy layout highlighted by a large great room that flows seamlessly into a gourmet kitchen, with an island overlooking the dining area, perfect for entertaining or everyday gatherings. Upstairs, retreat to your luxury owner’s suite, complete with a walk-in closet and a dual-vanity bath. Every detail of the Aspen is crafted to feel both stylish and functional. Creekside is an amenity rich community featuring 2 pools, clubhouse with fitness center, playgro

Key facts

• Aspen floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• ASPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LUXURY OWNER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL-VANITY BATH
• AMENITY RICH COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with $105 monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, meeting room, picnic area, playground, pool, tennis courts, and trails; Association fee covers common area maintenance, clubhouse, fitness facility, playground, pools, road maintenance, snow removal, tennis courts, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Garage faces front; Garage door opener; Off-street parking; Concrete driveway; Electricity to garage
• Security: Deadbolt(s); Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric; Cable available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached property; Two stories; New construction; HERS Index Score verification
• Construction: Built with insulated concrete forms (ICFs) and stick built construction; Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Poured slab foundation; Architectural roof
• Exterior features: Concrete covered patio; Landscaped lot; Community pool (association)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Electric heating
• Interior features: Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Programmable thermostat; Recessed lighting; Insulated windows; Low emissivity windows; Window screens; Tilt-in windows; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Low VOC paint/materials
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $273,156 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,569
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -19.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Tanglewood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-1%)	1mo	$355,000	$248	84
39 Gunnison Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+6%)	2mo	$446,857	$291	84
15 Gunnison Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+6%)	2mo	$399,990	$261	81
395 White Sands Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+6%)	2mo	$418,925	$273	80
97 Lumber Ln	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,387 (-4%)	1mo	$295,000	$213	79
101 Gunnison Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+8%)	6mo	$422,337	$271	78
365 White Sands Blvd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+8%)	0mo	$434,540	$279	78
282 White Sands Blvd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+8%)	5mo	$409,990	$263	76
793 Preddy Creek Rd	0.32mi	3/3.5	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$376,600	$280	66
715 Preddy Creek Rd	0.39mi	3/3.0	1,581 (+10%)	2mo	$390,000	$247	60
237 Trailfork Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-6%)	1mo	$385,990	$287	55
193 Trailfork Rd Lot 76	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+8%)	0mo	$373,389	$240	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-79,904
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-99,147
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,195

Max offer price $297,063

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-245	+0% $-366	+5% $-487	+10% $-608
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-474	+0% $-366	+5% $-258	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-277	base $-366	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	15d	1	0.46mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	4d	1	0.46mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	0d	23	0.60mi
6039 Seminole Trl Barboursville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	981	$1,647	$1.68	0d	5	0.78mi
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	15d	1	0.79mi
68 Black Hawk Dr Ruckersville, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	948	$1,925	$2.03	0d	5	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   price $349,990 1151-char remark
7. 2026-05-14
   listed $369,990 Active 1151-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$10,512
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $349,990 CAAR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $369,990 CAAR