451 S Velva Cir · Avon Park, FL 33825

$89,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 932 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1985 5,200 sqft lot Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an inexpensive home to spend your winter months or to live full time in a quaint community close to everything in Avon Park. This home has 2 bedrooms and two baths, an outdoor porchd a carport to pull your car into. Storm shutter also included. Furnishings are included. Friendly neighbors are found here.

Key facts

• 5,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Fleetwood Crownpoint model; Residential mobile home
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Side porch; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Furnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.9% in Avon Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#407 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Highlands (other): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Avon Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 523 students, 77% FRL); Avon Park Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #410 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 638 students, 77% FRL); Avon Park High School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 928 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 475 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 980 units permitted in Highlands County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $90k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.16%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,336
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1227 Seamans St	0.02mi	2/2.0	910 (-2%)	2mo	$85,000	$93	94
1210 Head St	0.22mi	2/1.5	864 (-7%)	5mo	$85,000	$98	71
1218 Head St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-1%)	16mo	$139,000	$150	70
220 S Camphor Loop	0.16mi	2/2.0	840 (-10%)	10mo	$67,000	$80	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,319
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $27,994
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33825

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Active inventory: 475
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $689

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 W Bell St Avon Park, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$985	$1.71	23d	1	0.31mi
1002 Locke St Avon Park, FL	1.0	1.0	462	$920	$1.99	14d	10	0.51mi
565 Luminary LOOP Avon Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1142	$994	$0.87	23d	6	0.78mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $89,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 317-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $89,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 75.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $3,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highlands
• NCES district ID: 1200840
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,276
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4672
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Avon Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #7205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Highlands County · 98,898 people
• City population: 25,501
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,501
• Household income: $46,949
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Highlands County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,674 people
• By 2030: 99,615 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 99,342 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 98,242 · -1.4%
• By 2075: 93,291 · -6.4%
• By 2100: 79,894 · -19.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Highlands

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 29.3% · R 70.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+32.0 2012: R+23.0 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.54%
• Current HPI: 281.8067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sebring-Avon Park, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+180.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $89,900 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.