10044 Locust Dr · Fenton, MI 48430

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1950 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking in Fenton. This charming bungalow sits on 3/4 of an acre with deeded access to Runyan Lake, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream lake retreat to enjoy kayaking, swimming and sunbathing. Featuring a walkout basement and surrounded by mature trees, the setting alone is hard to replicate. For over 30 years, the property has also enjoyed use of an additional 1/2 acre park-like space, complete with a beautiful river flowing through, creating a peaceful, nature-filled backdrop you simply don't find every day. With the right vision, this property has incredible upside. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a full-time residence near the lake, the potential here is undeniable. Bring your ideas and transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Fenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#130 in MI, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fenton Area Public Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #112 of 540 in MI (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $175k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,918 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-35,341
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-41,337
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48430

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $971/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,427

Max offer price $157,197

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9359 Valley View Dr Fenton, MI	2.0	1.0	916	$895	$0.98	43d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking in Fenton. This charming bungalow sits on 3/4 of an acre with deeded access to Runyan Lake, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream lake retreat to enjoy kayaking, swimming and sunbathing. Featuring a walkout basement and surrounded by mature trees, the setting alone is hard to replicate. For over 30 years, the property has also enjoyed use of an additional 1/2 acre park-like space, complete with a beautiful river flowing through, creating a peaceful, nature-filled backdrop you simply don't find every day. With the right vision, this property has incredible upside. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a full-time residence near the lake, the potential here is undeniable. Bring your ideas and transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking in Fenton. This charming bungalow sits on 3/4 of an acre with deeded access to Runyan Lake, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream lake retreat to enjoy kayaking, swimming and sunbathing. Featuring a walkout basement and surrounded by mature trees, the setting alone is hard to replicate. For over 30 years, the property has also enjoyed use of an additional 1/2 acre park-like space, complete with a beautiful river flowing through, creating a peaceful, nature-filled backdrop you simply don't find every day. With the right vision, this property has incredible upside. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a full-time residence near the lake, the potential here is undeniable. Bring your ideas and transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

3. 2026-04-17
   listed $175,000 Active 825-char remark

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking in Fenton. This charming bungalow sits on 3/4 of an acre with deeded access to Runyan Lake, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream lake retreat to enjoy kayaking, swimming and sunbathing. Featuring a walkout basement and surrounded by mature trees, the setting alone is hard to replicate. For over 30 years, the property has also enjoyed use of an additional 1/2 acre park-like space, complete with a beautiful river flowing through, creating a peaceful, nature-filled backdrop you simply don't find every day. With the right vision, this property has incredible upside. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a full-time residence near the lake, the potential here is undeniable. Bring your ideas and transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

4. 2026-04-17
   listed $175,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (825 chars)

   Opportunity is knocking in Fenton. This charming bungalow sits on 3/4 of an acre with deeded access to Runyan Lake, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream lake retreat to enjoy kayaking, swimming and sunbathing. Featuring a walkout basement and surrounded by mature trees, the setting alone is hard to replicate. For over 30 years, the property has also enjoyed use of an additional 1/2 acre park-like space, complete with a beautiful river flowing through, creating a peaceful, nature-filled backdrop you simply don't find every day. With the right vision, this property has incredible upside. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment opportunity, or a full-time residence near the lake, the potential here is undeniable. Bring your ideas and transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

5. 1996-01-10
   soldstatus $64,000
6. 1995-12-22
   soldstatus $64,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   (6 L) #76 Road Assessment Only-sewer Assessment $6815.22- These Are Not Included In The Taxes. Home Needs A Lot Of Tlc. Oil Furnace New In 91. $20 Mls Fee.

7. 1995-12-22
   soldstatus $64,000

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   (6 L) #76 Road Assessment Only-sewer Assessment $6815.22- These Are Not Included In The Taxes. Home Needs A Lot Of Tlc. Oil Furnace New In 91. $20 Mls Fee.

8. 1995-11-13
   historical
9. 1994-10-31
   listed $76,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   (6 L) #76 Road Assessment Only-sewer Assessment $6815.22- These Are Not Included In The Taxes. Home Needs A Lot Of Tlc. Oil Furnace New In 91. $20 Mls Fee.

10. 1994-10-31
    listed $76,000

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    (6 L) #76 Road Assessment Only-sewer Assessment $6815.22- These Are Not Included In The Taxes. Home Needs A Lot Of Tlc. Oil Furnace New In 91. $20 Mls Fee.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 88.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$971
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,035
• After-tax cash flow: $-175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fenton Area Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2614250
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,377
• Composite: 41.63/100
• National rank: #3426
• State rank: #112 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fenton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 39,309
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 39,309
• Household income: $100,193
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -298.66%
• Current HPI: 238.8371
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+130.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-22 Sold (MLS) $64,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-12-22 Sold (MLS) $64,000 REALCOMP
• 1995-11-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1994-10-31 Listed $76,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1994-10-31 Listed $76,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $971 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.