Cielo Plan · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$367,990

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · MultiFamily · 197 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Cielo plan, a beautifully designed 2-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom duplex-style home offering 1,324 square feet of living space. . This thoughtfully crafted floorplan combines comfort, style, and convenience to create a home you'll love to call your own. Every aspect of the Cielo floorplan is thoughtfully designed to provide a low-maintenance lifestyle, giving you more time to enjoy the social and recreational opportunities in the Victory community.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 196 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $367,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Plan name: Cielo; New-construction plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,324

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active new-construction plan (Cielo)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $368k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $205/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $368k).
• Recommended offer: $324k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Litchfield Elementary District (4281) (suburban): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #55 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-31,917
• Equity at exit: $54,869

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $12,461
• Equity at exit: $31,817

Cash invested: $103,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,930
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$460 /mo · $5,520/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,219

Max offer price $367,990

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,738
Total (2 units)			$3,738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,998
• Closing costs: $11,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4454 N 199th Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,500	$1.41	1d	1	0.48mi
19958 W Badgett Ln Litchfield Park, AZ	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,500	$1.37	1d	1	0.49mi
5922 N 199th Ln Litchfield Park, AZ	4.0	2.0	1831	$2,495	$1.36	1d	1	0.53mi
19839 W Annika Dr Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1729	$2,100	$1.21	10d	1	0.65mi
19725 W Rancho Dr Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,095	$1.12	1d	1	0.75mi
19577 W Palo Verde Dr Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,875	$1.13	1d	1	0.95mi
20363 W Sells Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,425	$1.83	1d	1	1.19mi
4454 N 199th Ln Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,500	$1.41	18d	1	1.25mi
4412 N 203rd Dr Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,500	$1.50	10d	1	1.26mi
19420 W Highland Ave Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	1d	1	1.43mi
19420 W Coolidge St Litchfield Park, AZ	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,995	$1.42	17d	1	1.48mi
21017 W Glen St Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,790	$1.17	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $367,990 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,990 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $367,990 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,990 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $367,990 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $367,990 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $367,990 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $367,990 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $367,990 Active 183 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $367,990 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $367,990 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $367,990 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $367,990 Active 179 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,613
• − Property taxes: −$5,520
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,588
• − Management: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$10,705
• Taxable loss: −$999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $5,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Litchfield Elementary District (4281)
• NCES district ID: 0404380
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $75,649
• Composite: 38.56/100
• National rank: #4169
• State rank: #55 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B