218 Herman St · Buffalo, NY 14211

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,123 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1900 3,960 sqft lot $85/sqft · 23% below area Est $124k · 23% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom single family house, with living room, dining room, kitchen, bathroom and a 1/4 unfinished basement. The living room has a gas fireplace surrounded by a brick mantle. 10 minutes from downtown Buffalo, and from the University of Buffalo Medical Corridor. A driveway with large spacious yard. This property belongs to an estate and is ready for an immediate sale. It has a current title search. I'm interested in serious buyers only, and no resellers, or agents. The property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Large spacious yard
• Gas fireplace
• Brick mantle

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• BRICK MANTLE
• LARGE SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,096/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 19% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.09%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,594
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -23.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
598 High St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,139 (+1%)	7mo	$115,000	$101	83
189 Reed St	0.14mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,261 (+12%)	10mo	$145,000	$115	60
513 High St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+13%)	7mo	$95,000	$75	60
18 Paderewski Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-4%)	17mo	$65,000	$60	52
718 Northampton St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,041 (-7%)	14mo	$112,000	$108	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $70,447
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $167,693
• Equity at exit: $54,517

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $1,000

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,065	-5% $1,032	+0% $1,000	+5% $967	+10% $934
Rent	-10% $834	-5% $917	+0% $1,000	+5% $1,082	+10% $1,165
Rate	-1.0pp $1,047	-0.5pp $1,024	base $1,000	+0.5pp $975	+1.0pp $950

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	0.92mi
1145 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	655	$2,049	$3.13	44d	1	0.99mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	1.12mi
1155 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$2,300	$3.88	44d	1	1.25mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	15d	1	1.27mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	3d	5	1.28mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	1.28mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	15d	1	1.29mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	11d	7	1.30mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	44d	1	1.33mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	1.33mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	15d	1	1.34mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	24d	1	1.35mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	24d	1	1.35mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	44d	1	1.36mi
19 E Utica St Unit 203 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	15d	1	1.37mi
519 Virginia St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	4d	3	1.39mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	24d	1	1.39mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	4d	1	1.43mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	1.46mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $95,000 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-03-03
   historical
6. 2026-02-03
   listed $79,999 Active
7. 2026-01-06
   listed $95,000 Active 504-char remark

   Show marketing remark (504 chars)

   3 bedroom single family house, with living room, dining room, kitchen, bathroom and a 1/4 unfinished basement. The living room has a gas fireplace surrounded by a brick mantle. 10 minutes from downtown Buffalo, and from the University of Buffalo Medical Corridor. A driveway with large spacious yard. This property belongs to an estate and is ready for an immediate sale. It has a current title search. I'm interested in serious buyers only, and no resellers, or agents. The property is being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $11,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,675
• After-tax cash flow: $9,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $79,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $95,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $62 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.