821 N 8th St · Rochelle, IL 61068

$147,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1940 8,712 sqft lot Est $179k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Steal of a deal in Rochelle! 821 N 8th St is the perfect blend of affordability and opportunity. Investors can capitalize on a light cosmetic value-add, while homeowners can secure a discounted home without major renovations. Solid bones, great potential, and priced to attract serious buyers looking for instant equity.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Hwy. 251 to 5th Ave to 8th St; Township: Flagg; Corporate limits: Rochelle
• HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include curbs, sidewalks, street lights and paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (garage owned) with approximately 1.5 garage/total parking spaces
• Security: CO detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; 1.5-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Estimated living area; Property age: approximately 81–90 years
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (includes full bath); Three additional bedrooms on second level (11 x 14; 10 x 12; 9 x 9)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living room, dining room and three second-floor bedrooms; Carpet in family room and master bedroom; Vinyl in kitchen and enclosed porch
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; CO detectors; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Partially finished basement with crawl space; Separate dining room; 8 total rooms; Enclosed porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($698/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Rochelle Twp Hsd 212 (rural): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #608 of 919 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Rochelle Middle School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #444 of 665 statewide, top 67%, 474 students, 0% FRL); Rochelle Twp High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 863 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 113 units permitted in Ogle County in 2024 (67 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ogle County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $127k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,225 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,322
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826 N 3rd St	0.29mi	4/1.5	1,499 (+1%)	4mo	$170,000	$113	79
817 N 7th St	0.07mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,387 (-6%)	5mo	$168,500	$121	75
620 N 9th St	0.16mi	4/1.5	1,396 (-6%)	8mo	$187,000	$134	75
500 Woolf Ct	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,464 (-1%)	3mo	$164,900	$113	67
1116 Carrie Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+0%)	3mo	$255,000	$171	61
1255 Westview Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,386 (-6%)	0mo	$197,500	$142	60
128 S 8th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,446 (-2%)	0mo	$162,000	$112	58
1002 W 1st Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (+3%)	6mo	$148,470	$97	57
1210 Lincoln Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,545 (+4%)	8mo	$165,000	$107	56
206 Joanne Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (+5%)	7mo	$257,900	$166	55
1170 Westview Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-8%)	4mo	$190,000	$139	54
221 N 9th St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (-14%)	2mo	$130,000	$101	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-20,087
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,270
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61068

• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,933/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $100	+0% $58	+5% $16	+10% $-25
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-3	+0% $58	+5% $119	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $96	base $58	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $147,500
3. 2026-02-26
   price $153,500
4. 2026-02-20
   listed $155,000 Active
5. 2017-09-12
   soldstatus $126,650
6. 2014-11-22
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$3,933
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$1,646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$395
• After-tax cash flow: $1,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochelle Twp Hsd 212
• NCES district ID: 1734290
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,343
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #12981
• State rank: #608 of 919 in IL

Livability — Rochelle

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #12244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochelle, IL
• Population (ZIP): 15,076

Population outlook (Ogle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,390 people
• By 2030: 46,346 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 41,772 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 36,911 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 27,130 · -43.9%
• By 2100: 18,627 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Ogle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.5% · R 63.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.6pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+16.7 2008: R+7.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.85%
• Current HPI: 150.4419
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $147,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $153,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $155,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $126,650 Public Records
• 2014-11-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,933 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.