120 Brookview Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$259,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot $181/sqft · 10% below area Est $288k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into elevated living in this stunning newly built residence where modern luxury meets everyday comfort. Designed with an open-concept layout this exceptional home offers an inviting atmosphere with sophisticated contemporary finishes throughout. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 beautifully appointed bathrooms, the thoughtfully designed primary suite provides a private retreat complete with a large walk-in closet. At the heart of the home, the designer kitchen impresses with striking black marble countertops, an oversized island perfect for entertaining, abundant cabinetry, a spacious pantry, and brand-new stainless-steel appliances — blending style and functionality seamlessly

Key facts

• Designer kitchen
• Spacious pantry
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• BLACK MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.9% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,971 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.83%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,173
• List price: $259,999
• Delta: -9.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-0%)	2mo	$264,900	$185	87
171 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-0%)	14mo	$250,000	$175	77
167 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-0%)	18mo	$269,000	$188	74
192 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+8%)	5mo	$279,000	$180	73
239 Cimmarron Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+1%)	15mo	$267,500	$184	61
188 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,263 (-12%)	14mo	$244,650	$194	59
196 Cactus Canyon Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,632 (+14%)	18mo	$299,900	$184	57
180 Cimmarron Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+13%)	3mo	$309,900	$191	50
813 Haynie Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (+9%)	3mo	$289,900	$186	47
111 Jim Walters Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,603 (+12%)	12mo	$295,000	$184	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,838
• Equity at exit: $65,009

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-48,686
• Equity at exit: $70,199

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $200,017

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,999 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,999 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,999 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,999 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,999 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,999 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,999 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,999 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,999 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,999 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,999 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,999 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,999 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    historical
16. 2026-04-28
    historical $2,000
17. 2026-02-17
    listed $2,000
18. 2026-02-03
    listed $259,999 Active
19. 2026-01-31
    historical
20. 2025-12-03
    price $259,499
21. 2025-10-21
    historical
22. 2025-10-20
    listed $259,999 Active
23. 2025-08-13
    price $260,000
24. 2025-06-30
    price $270,000
25. 2025-04-24
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2025-04-04
    historical
27. 2025-03-04
    listed $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$9,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,326
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Rental Removed $2,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-17 Listed for Rent $2,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $259,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $259,499 NTREIS
• 2025-10-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $259,999 NTREIS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $270,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-24 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-04 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-03-04 Listed $275,000 NTREIS