2074 Gray Park Dr · Lapeer, MI 48446

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 1946 3,049 sqft lot $200/sqft · 16% below area Est $207k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect lakeside escape with this charming cottage located just steps from Bronson Lake, a beautiful 110-acre all-sports lake known for its clear waters, boating, fishing, and beach access at Gray Park. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat or a cozy year-round residence, this property offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting open-concept layout filled with natural light, rustic wood accents, and ceiling fans that add to the cottage charm. The updated kitchen features painted cabinetry, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living area, creating the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. The home includes one main-floor bedroom along with a spacious loft that provides flexible additional sleeping space, a cozy hangout area, or room for guests. The full bathroom has been tastefully updated with charming lake-inspired details that complement the home’s relaxed atmosphere. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the private patio overlooking the lake. Grill with friends, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind while taking in the tranquil setting. With private road access and the beach just a short walk away, this cottage delivers the feel of an “up north” getaway without the long drive. Don’t miss this opportunity to own your own slice of lakeside paradise—schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Lakeside escape
• Bronson lake
• Private patio

Tags

• LAKESIDE ESCAPE
• BRONSON LAKE
• BEACH ACCESS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained gravel road; private road frontage; Lot roughly 40 x 80 (0.07 acre); Located on Bronson Lake; Approx. 876 above-grade finished square feet
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one half stories
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shed(s); Beach access and waterfront access on Bronson Lake; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Wall furnace; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (18.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Lapeer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#231 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turrill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 391 students, 58% FRL); Rolland Warner Campus 67 (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #317 of 493 statewide, top 65%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Lapeer High School (math 29% / reading 55%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 1,196 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,236 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,386
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -15.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2219 Gray Rd	0.28mi	2/1.0	880 (+0%)	1mo	$185,000	$210	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-40,157
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-50,197
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,016/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,467

Max offer price $142,307

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-136	+0% $-185	+5% $-235	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-282	-5% $-234	+0% $-185	+5% $-136	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-141	base $-185	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Under Contract 1474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

   Discover the perfect lakeside escape with this charming cottage located just steps from Bronson Lake, a beautiful 110-acre all-sports lake known for its clear waters, boating, fishing, and beach access at Gray Park. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat or a cozy year-round residence, this property offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting open-concept layout filled with natural light, rustic wood accents, and ceiling fans that add to the cottage charm. The updated kitchen features painted cabinetry, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living area, creating the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. The home includes one main-floor bedroom along with a spacious loft that provides flexible additional sleeping space, a cozy hangout area, or room for guests. The full bathroom has been tastefully updated with charming lake-inspired details that complement the home’s relaxed atmosphere. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the private patio overlooking the lake. Grill with friends, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind while taking in the tranquil setting. With private road access and the beach just a short walk away, this cottage delivers the feel of an “up north” getaway without the long drive. Don’t miss this opportunity to own your own slice of lakeside paradise—schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-05-16
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 1505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

   Discover the perfect lakeside escape with this charming cottage located just steps from Bronson Lake, a beautiful 110-acre all-sports lake known for its clear waters, boating, fishing, and beach access at Gray Park. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat or a cozy year-round residence, this property offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting open-concept layout filled with natural light, rustic wood accents, and ceiling fans that add to the cottage charm. The updated kitchen features painted cabinetry, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living area, creating the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. The home includes one main-floor bedroom along with a spacious loft that provides flexible additional sleeping space, a cozy hangout area, or room for guests. The full bathroom has been tastefully updated with charming lake-inspired details that complement the home’s relaxed atmosphere. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the private patio overlooking the lake. Grill with friends, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind while taking in the tranquil setting. With private road access and the beach just a short walk away, this cottage delivers the feel of an “up north” getaway without the long drive. Don’t miss this opportunity to own your own slice of lakeside paradise—schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-05-14
   listed $175,000 Active 1474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

   Discover the perfect lakeside escape with this charming cottage located just steps from Bronson Lake, a beautiful 110-acre all-sports lake known for its clear waters, boating, fishing, and beach access at Gray Park. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat or a cozy year-round residence, this property offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting open-concept layout filled with natural light, rustic wood accents, and ceiling fans that add to the cottage charm. The updated kitchen features painted cabinetry, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living area, creating the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. The home includes one main-floor bedroom along with a spacious loft that provides flexible additional sleeping space, a cozy hangout area, or room for guests. The full bathroom has been tastefully updated with charming lake-inspired details that complement the home’s relaxed atmosphere. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the private patio overlooking the lake. Grill with friends, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind while taking in the tranquil setting. With private road access and the beach just a short walk away, this cottage delivers the feel of an “up north” getaway without the long drive. Don’t miss this opportunity to own your own slice of lakeside paradise—schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-05-14
   listed $175,000 Active 1505-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

   Discover the perfect lakeside escape with this charming cottage located just steps from Bronson Lake, a beautiful 110-acre all-sports lake known for its clear waters, boating, fishing, and beach access at Gray Park. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat or a cozy year-round residence, this property offers the ideal blend of comfort, character, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting open-concept layout filled with natural light, rustic wood accents, and ceiling fans that add to the cottage charm. The updated kitchen features painted cabinetry, quartz countertops, and flows seamlessly into the living area, creating the perfect space for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. The home includes one main-floor bedroom along with a spacious loft that provides flexible additional sleeping space, a cozy hangout area, or room for guests. The full bathroom has been tastefully updated with charming lake-inspired details that complement the home’s relaxed atmosphere. Outside, enjoy peaceful mornings and relaxing evenings on the private patio overlooking the lake. Grill with friends, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind while taking in the tranquil setting. With private road access and the beach just a short walk away, this cottage delivers the feel of an “up north” getaway without the long drive. Don’t miss this opportunity to own your own slice of lakeside paradise—schedule your private showing today!

5. 2025-12-04
   historical
6. 2025-12-04
   historical
7. 2025-10-05
   price $165,990
8. 2025-10-04
   price $165,990
9. 2025-06-06
   listed $169,900 Active
10. 2025-06-06
    listed $169,900 Active
11. 2021-05-25
    soldstatus $135,000
12. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $135,000 Sold
13. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
14. 2021-04-20
    status Pending
15. 2021-04-20
    status Pending
16. 2020-09-24
    price $139,900
17. 2020-09-24
    price $139,900
18. 2020-08-07
    listed $145,000 Active
19. 2020-08-07
    listed $145,000 Active
20. 2010-12-06
    historical
21. 2010-12-06
    historical
22. 2004-09-27
    soldstatus $70,000
23. 2004-08-26
    historical
24. 2004-07-28
    listed $74,900
25. 2003-09-30
    historical
26. 2003-09-30
    historical
27. 2003-06-30
    listed $74,900
28. 2003-06-30
    listed $74,900
29. 2003-06-10
    historical
30. 2002-12-11
    listed $74,900
31. 2002-12-11
    listed $74,900
32. 2002-12-02
    historical
33. 2002-06-07
    listed $79,900
34. 2002-06-07
    listed $79,900
35. 2002-06-07
    historical
36. 2002-06-06
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,356 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 16.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,016
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$5,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lapeer

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #5855

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• City population: 30,581
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+119.0% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $175,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $175,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $165,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $165,990 REALCOMP
• 2025-06-06 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2021-04-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-04-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2020-09-24 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-09-24 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-08-07 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-08-07 Listed $145,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2004-09-27 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-08-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-28 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-09-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-09-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2003-06-30 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-06-30 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-06-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-12-11 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-12-11 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-12-02 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2002-06-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-07 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-07 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-06 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,016 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.