1419 Willow Wisp Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1983 5,501 sqft lot Est $233k · 18% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1419 Willow Wisp Drive in the established Hunters Park community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a desirable single-story floor plan with spacious living areas, a cozy fireplace, and endless potential. Featuring great bones and a functional layout, this property presents an excellent opportunity for customization and value-add improvements. Perfect for first-time homebuyers, investors, or anyone looking to create their dream home, this property is ready for your personal touch. Enjoy a large living space ideal for entertaining, comfortable bedrooms, and a layout designed for everyday living. Conveniently located near parks, shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes

Key facts

• Large living space
• Cozy fireplace
• 5,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE LIVING SPACE
• AFFORDABLE FIXER-UPPER
• STRONG INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community association: Sterling; Association fee $495 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1983
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Cleared lot; Concrete road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 16 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 12 x 11)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Tub/shower; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($316/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 35% district-wide (53 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $266 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1618 Oakbury Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-5%)	3mo	$220,000	$151	74
1639 Castle Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$172	72
1478 Willow Wisp Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-6%)	10mo	$220,000	$152	72
1635 Castle Creek Drive Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+6%)	6mo	$257,000	$158	68
1118 Aster Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-8%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	65
1819 Wood Orchard Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,435 (-6%)	1mo	$249,500	$174	60
619 Fawnwood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+8%)	2mo	$240,000	$144	57
1415 Whispering Pine Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-12%)	1mo	$139,900	$104	56
614 Tramwood Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+8%)	1mo	$199,995	$120	55
710 Fawnwood Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,661 (+8%)	9mo	$199,000	$120	54
915 Crestmont Trail Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,687 (+10%)	9mo	$259,000	$154	45
1621 Crestmont Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,712 (+12%)	1mo	$219,900	$128	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,830
• Equity at exit: $49,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,094
• Equity at exit: $56,073

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$457 /mo · $5,489/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,992

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	44d	1	0.70mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	13d	1	0.88mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	21d	1	1.05mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.11mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	21d	1	1.23mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	20d	1	1.40mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	1.44mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,489 · $457/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,489 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,489
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $960/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,489 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.